PFF - have y'all seen this (2 Viewers)

[louder]

BAM!!
Even with all the other changes, the head man from last year is still here, so if bad coaching was what held us back, it will again.

^This. Dennis Allen is a proven loser. He just isn’t an effective head coach and has never been. Is he suddenly going to transform into a prepared, detail oriented, passionate, visionary leader?
I expect 7 or 8 wins, and we’re on this same merry go round next season.
You can’t get around bad coaching.

 

[sainthood]

Great red zone offenses have a strong tight end, box out wide receiver, offensive line and goal line back. The Raiders had Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams last year but Waller was hurt most of the year with our current TE in Moreau. Jacobs had 12 TDs last year but only 2 from within 3 yards and 1,653 yards as one of the highest producers in the league. Adams had 14 tds the next best WR had 4. Moreau had 2, Waller had 3.

Here are some red zone stats surrounding that percentage completion. Part of the stat is how many throws did a QB actually have in the redzone. Dalton with the Saints only had 47 in 2022. Carr had ten more. I put Brady's recent stats to show how much higher a team that primarily throws in the redzone could be as a top of a scale.

Derek Carr
2022 red zone 24/57 42.11 11TDs 2 ints
2021 red zone 43/76 56.58 17 TDs 2 ints
2020 red zone 42 /78 53.85 15TDs 1 int
2019 red zone 42 /72 58.33 15TDs 2 int
2018 red zone 36 / 59 61.02 14TDs 2 Int
2017 red zone 22 /45 48.89 12 TDs 1 Int
2016 red zone 44/90 48.89 19 tds 1 int
2015 red zone 23 /52 44.23 17tds, 2 ints
2014 red zone 28 /44 63.64 18 tds 1 int

Tom Brady
2022 red zone 57 /97 58.76 20 tds 0 ints
2021 red zone 73 /120 60.83 30Tds 0 ints
2020 red zone 51/84 60.71 28 td 0 int

Andy Dalton
2022 red zone 31/47 65.96 11 tds 1 int

The Saints have Taysom Hill and Jamal Williams now and Moreau should be better than Trautman. We also have Miller that should be better than Ingram. Kamara has been great in the past in the red zone but he was not in 2022. Michael Thomas had two red zone TDs in game 1 last year. There is reason to hope that the Saints red zone talent around Carr could help red zone production but the team may not have Carr passing a whole lot in the red zone. The combo of Hill under center with Williams behind him with Michael Thomas as a single receiver seems like a strong goal line package where Carr may not even need to be on the field.

 

[Rexman100]

And reading about Jimbo Fisher's offensive scheme, Jameis should have never been put in the Coryell; that was a Lovie misstep. Funny enough, the offense that he ran in college is closest in concept (literally) to what Josh McDaniels took to Las Vegas.
@jahsoul357 you’re copyrighting me! Lol.

to be honest, it’s ok to compare JW, Dc4 and Ad, because they are all vet QBs trying to rejuvenate their careers. What makes one better than the other statistically? In the most commonly used stats, Dc wins. In obscure and new age movement stats, such as : games played at night/on a tuesday/during a leap year/in the rain/at home/with less than 40k fans present. , JW wins. Lol. But the fact is, statistically, there isnt a smoking gun. A few points here and there can be justified and blamed on the surrounding players and coaching schemes. So why is Carr a better choice? His ability to be available to play. He’s excellent in that category. DB, TB12, Farve, Marino, Moon, Mahomes, Montana, Mannings all had a great ability to be available. If you’re available then you can learn and grow. (If you don’t go to class, you won’t pass the test) JW needed to learn how those guys were able to constantly be available. There is something there it’s not luck. Then one could say, then why not AD over Carr? I’d say, he checks all of the boxes including availability, but he lacks pocket mobility to avoid free blitzers. And he couldn’t scramble in the pocket and improvise, age has caught up with his legs.

 

[SWJJ]

And reading about Jimbo Fisher's offensive scheme, Jameis should have never been put in the Coryell; that was a Lovie misstep. Funny enough, the offense that he ran in college is closest in concept (literally) to what Josh McDaniels took to Las Vegas.
@jahsoul357 you’re copyrighting me! Lol.

to be honest, it’s ok to compare JW, Dc4 and Ad, because they are all vet QBs trying to rejuvenate their careers. What makes one better than the other statistically? In the most commonly used stats, Dc wins. In obscure and new age movement stats, such as : games played at night/on a tuesday/during a leap year/in the rain/at home/with less than 40k fans present. , JW wins. Lol. But the fact is, statistically, there isnt a smoking gun. A few points here and there can be justified and blamed on the surrounding players and coaching schemes. So why is Carr a better choice? His ability to be available to play. He’s excellent in that category. DB, TB12, Farve, Marino, Moon, Mahomes, Montana, Mannings all had a great ability to be available. If you’re available then you can learn and grow. (If you don’t go to class, you won’t pass the test) JW needed to learn how those guys were able to constantly be available. There is something there it’s not luck. Then one could say, then why not AD over Carr? I’d say, he checks all of the boxes including availability, but he lacks pocket mobility to avoid free blitzers. And he couldn’t scramble in the pocket and improvise, age has caught up with his legs.

excellent point.


The best ability is availability

 

[jahsoul357]

If Carr is the same guy as last year, we are in for a long season. But I think most are willing to give him a mulligan considering just how dysfunctional that situation was.

I agree. I've said several times that I think the problem with Carr last season was he was not able to fully grasp the offense and he needed more time but there was probably behind the scenes issues, like McDaniels wanting his guy.
My worry has always been scoring with Carr because truth be told, if Carr is the same QB from the last 5 years, we will need the Lutz of old more than ever. Putting up yards wasn't the issue with the Raiders; it was the scoring touchdowns that was their problem and I don't know if it was coaching, scheming, or Carr. Might be a combo of them.

I haven’t deep dived into Carrs play at the Raiders under JM. Did he struggle did he not struggle? Did he not comprehend the system or was it a physical limitation? Both? Neither?. I don’t know, but what I do know is that the Raiders hired a coach that has extremely strong ties with Jimmy G. And now he’s their QB. And his QB (Carr) at the time was cut before the season ended. Coincidence? I think not. Did JM really give Carr a fair shake? Not at all. Imagine your reaction if it was JW being cut in that manner. At least when JW went out it was to injury and not financial.

about JW/DB comparisons: We were devastated by a hurricane in 2005 and prior to that til 1967, that’s 38 years, the Saints only mustered one playoff win. In 2006, we not only win the division and a playoff game, we make it to the NFC Championship. The Saints fans went from absolutely zero hope to Supernowl hopeful in 1 year. So you can’t bring up 2007, without acknowledging 2006. Because of this tremendous accomplishment DB and SP have earned the right to be without scrutiny, be it warranted or not. Comparing any Saints QB to Db is pointless. It became clear immediately that SPs system and QB were the right fit. DB ypa dropped in his later years, that’s to be expected.

because his IAY is higher than most : One specific criticism I recall vividly, is that JW held on to the ball too long only to throw deep into tight coverage, incomplete. While the middle of the field was WIDE open. So wide open that kamara later complained that he wasn’t getting the ball. This tells me that JW has not yet gotten comfortable with the system. The system as we’ve heard many many times, is take what the defense gives you. He did not do this, he forced the ball when he should’ve dumped it off or hit the wide open WR over the middle. And again, the only reason JW is not the QB is due to injury. Then why did he lose his job when he was finally healthy? Was he ever healthy? Was he an ascending player in the first few games? Ans: Slowly. He needed at least 3-4 more games to see.

I completely understood the 2006 season. That doesn't dismiss the fact that he threw 1TD to 9 INTs in 2007 and you proved my point. Because of the deification of Drew Brees and the fact that we made him blameless, we don't know how to properly evaluate a QB. I said this last year:

I know exactly what he did in 2006 but many here have this unrealistic view of who Brees was. We made him this mythical figure who has never lost us game with bad play, never threw horrible interceptions, and always put the ball at the right spot. None of these are true but you better believe he was one of the greatest to ever play the position. The "deification" of Brees has turned this fanbase into one of the WORST at evaluating QB play, especially when plays don't show on ESPN.

We want to compare everything to the "godly" image of Drew that we made in our heads so any QB that fit some positive statistical measure that Drew obtained has to be good and anything other than the what we blocked from memory is bad. Also, "SP's system and the QB" weren't the right fit, per se. Sean Payton tailor made the system for Drew.

How'd Sean Payton and Drew Brees spend 15 years together? A rare duo built on 'mutual respect'

He might have seen it then, the way the next decade and a half would unfold, when Drew Brees first saw Sean Payton drawing up some offensive plays.

www.nola.com

This is what the great coaches do. This is why I tell people that the Saints never ran a WCO offense in Drew's prime. SP built the system for what Drew knew and anyone that really paid attention to 2021 could see he was doing the same.

You cherry pick and manipulate data or fine tune it to paint whatever picture you want it to. You "break down" winning percent, completion percent, or literally everything. You have done it over and over.

Also no one's take except your matters.

What did I cherry pick? I didn't break down winning percentage; that is their career winning percentages. I only broke down completion percentage to show how using that as a gauge doesn't really mean much when they played in completely different offensive systems. How can you compare the completion percentage of someone who averages 10 yards per throw to one that averages 7. That's why Jameis' CPOE is higher than Carr's

As far as "Who?" you are being purposefully obtuse. It's the loaded roster that Tom Brady took to a super bowl. He was throwing to Mike Evans and Chris Goodwin. He Literally had 2 Probowl WR on his team. OJ Howard at TE. He even had Desean Jackson and Payton Barber to throw to for a couple of seasons.

The roster that was so loaded that they had to draft a O-lineman in the first round, recruit a RB, HOF TE, grab AB, and then for the cherry on top, grabbed a proven kicker. And even with that, they were still 7-5 going into the bye week until they chunked "no risk it, no biscuit" in the trash can. The fact that you believe that was the same roster or even the same offense shows who the one is being obtuse. Especially when you realize that the main difference with that team was the second year under Bowles.

 

[jahsoul357]

And reading about Jimbo Fisher's offensive scheme, Jameis should have never been put in the Coryell; that was a Lovie misstep. Funny enough, the offense that he ran in college is closest in concept (literally) to what Josh McDaniels took to Las Vegas.
@jahsoul357 you’re copyrighting me! Lol.

to be honest, it’s ok to compare JW, Dc4 and Ad, because they are all vet QBs trying to rejuvenate their careers. What makes one better than the other statistically? In the most commonly used stats, Dc wins. In obscure and new age movement stats, such as : games played at night/on a tuesday/during a leap year/in the rain/at home/with less than 40k fans present. , JW wins. Lol. But the fact is, statistically, there isnt a smoking gun. A few points here and there can be justified and blamed on the surrounding players and coaching schemes. So why is Carr a better choice? His ability to be available to play. He’s excellent in that category. DB, TB12, Farve, Marino, Moon, Mahomes, Montana, Mannings all had a great ability to be available. If you’re available then you can learn and grow. (If you don’t go to class, you won’t pass the test) JW needed to learn how those guys were able to constantly be available. There is something there it’s not luck. Then one could say, then why not AD over Carr? I’d say, he checks all of the boxes including availability, but he lacks pocket mobility to avoid free blitzers. And he couldn’t scramble in the pocket and improvise, age has caught up with his legs.

HAHA....not new age stats. I agree with you that availability is the best ability and the injuries since being here has been crazy. But to say that DC wins in the most commonly used stats ignore the fact that those are considered some of the worst to use for evaluating. We can't talk about "change in era" but then hold on to the stats that lost relevancy because of that change. Since majority of the league has adopted a "short passing game," they have been trying to throw completion percentage and QB rating to the bushes. lol

The funny thing is when you look at all of those "new age stats," 1 name is usually plastered all over the top of them; Drew Freaking Brees.

 

[Nonreg]

Carr was a Raider for 9 seasons and was coached by 2 coaches for a total of 6 of those seasons and Grudens staff and offense was still in place after he was gone. And contrary to popular belief, Carr had great coaching. Matter of fact, let's compare the Patriots offensive ranking in 2021 compared to 2022. Also, let's compare the Raiders offensive ranking in 2022 compared to most of the seasons Carr has been there. McDaniels might suck as it relates to people but I think their situation might look different next season.

Your facts are wrong:

Carr was drafted in 2014; with Dennis Allen (1) drafting him

Allen was fired that year, Tony Sparano (2) took over

Sparano was not retained that year and Jack Del Rio (3) took over

2018 Del Rio was not retained, Gruden (4) was hired to a mega contract

Gruden had his scandal in 2021 and was not retained; Josh McDaniels (4) hired as HC in 2022

Saying Grudens staff was in place is like saying Paytons staff was in place for Andy Dalton; how did that work out?

"Carr had great coaching" is LOL if I have ever read it. No part of the above was great coaching, including Gruden who I love. (but he did have his best seasons under him)

Lets not compare any franchise to Oakland, especially the high and mighty New England Patriots who have held the top spot for a while. Oakland is not like any franchise, it is a dumpster fire where careers go to die. McDaniels will not have a better season next year and my guess is Oakland will continue their tradition of failure.

 

[David Robbins]

If Jamie's so good, why was he in an open competition with Taysom Hill for the starting QB job. Last year, he got replaced by Andy Dalton for heavens sake. The coaches know he is not a franchise QB. He's now very gun-shy and timid. Throwing 33 in's will do that to you. He's playing scared when he's on the field. You can't do that as a starting QB.

 

[David Robbins]

Jameis Winston Career Stats | NFL.com

Derek Carr Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Derek Carr. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

This might help to show the reason he is not starting

 

[David Robbins]

The reason I started this thread has gotten passed by somewhat. The saints are projected as division winners, which should mean that we should be ranked from 1 to 8 as one of the top teams in the NFL. The improvements we have made are unmistakable, as we upgraded @ almost every position. Especially @ QB.

If you win your division, that means a home playoff game. There are only 8 divisions, and as I said, that makes us one of the best of 8 teams. How can we be legitimately ranked out of the top 8.

Derek Carr is - as the stats between Jamie's and Derek I posted proves - is a huge upgrade over Jamie's and Andy Dalton.

The only true weaknesses we have - imagined or not - is o-line, de, lb'ers depth, and coaching. And these may work themselves out. And, every team has holes because of the salary cap. You can no longer hoard players because of free agency.

One more move - among 1 or 2 more we should make - is this:

Why the Saints should bring back Kwon Alexander

Counting down the days until training camp, the New Orleans Saints look locked and loaded for this upcoming season. The team is looking pretty much set, but they could bring in an old friend. 28-year-old Kwon Alexander is still sitting in free agency and could be an excellent addition to the...

saintsreport.com

 

[David Robbins]

The reason I started this thread has gotten passed by somewhat. The saints are projected as division winners, which should mean that we should be ranked from 1 to 8 as one of the top teams in the NFL. The improvements we have made are unmistakable, as we upgraded @ almost every position. Especially @ QB.

If you win your division, that means a home playoff game. There are only 8 divisions, and as I said, that makes us one of the best of 8 teams. How can we be legitimately ranked out of the top 8.

Derek Carr is - as the stats between Jamie's and Derek I posted proves - is a huge upgrade over Jamie's and Andy Dalton.

The only true weaknesses we have - imagined or not - is o-line, de, lb'ers depth, and coaching. And these may work themselves out. And, every team has holes because of the salary cap. You can no longer hoard players because of free agency.

One more move - among 1 or 2 more we should make - is this:

Why the Saints should bring back Kwon Alexander

Counting down the days until training camp, the New Orleans Saints look locked and loaded for this upcoming season. The team is looking pretty much set, but they could bring in an old friend. 28-year-old Kwon Alexander is still sitting in free agency and could be an excellent addition to the...

saintsreport.com

And here's another move:

Yannick Ngakoue - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[David Robbins]

And 1 more point:

Saints offense ranked among NFL's most-improved units going into 2023

The Derek Carr-led New Orleans Saints offense has been ranked among the NFL’s most-improved units going into 2023:

saintswire.usatoday.com

 

[jahsoul357]

Your facts are wrong:

Carr was drafted in 2014; with Dennis Allen (1) drafting him

Allen was fired that year, Tony Sparano (2) took over

Sparano was not retained that year and Jack Del Rio (3) took over

2018 Del Rio was not retained, Gruden (4) was hired to a mega contract

Gruden had his scandal in 2021 and was not retained; Josh McDaniels (4) hired as HC in 2022

I should have been more clear but you validated what I said. Carr was coached by Del Rio and Gruden for a total of 6 years and then Gruden resigned after the email stuff.

Saying Grudens staff was in place is like saying Paytons staff was in place for Andy Dalton; how did that work out?

They went 10-6 and made the playoffs. Stone Cold Daniel Carlson's foot was golden that season...lol

"Carr had great coaching" is LOL if I have ever read it. No part of the above was great coaching, including Gruden who I love. (but he did have his best seasons under him)

Del Rio/Musgrave and Gruden/Olsen were great coaching combos. Did they have their flaws, yeah, but they were great coaches. And honestly, I've read some that some fans believe that 2017 went to the dumps because Del Rio got rid of Musgrave, for unknown reasons:

Downing: Carr will have increased influence on Raiders game plan

Derek Carr and Todd Downing are tight. A strong friendship was forged between the Raiders’ franchise quarterback and his position coach these past two seasons, one that should help the Raiders now that Downing will call plays. The Raiders new offensive coordinator will use his young signal...

www.nbcsportsbayarea.com

And things actually began coming together for Carr his 3rd season under Gruden. That is the one season where you can say, with you chest, that defense is what let the Raiders down. Gruden situation and Ruggs being an idiot (and that sucks because he is from the Gump) derailed their 2021, but their real issue was the run game went down, as that what they were leaning on heavy in those early wins.

Lets not compare any franchise to Oakland, especially the high and mighty New England Patriots who have held the top spot for a while. Oakland is not like any franchise, it is a dumpster fire where careers go to die. McDaniels will not have a better season next year and my guess is Oakland will continue their tradition of failure.

Oakland is not the only dumpster fire franchise in the NFL. The Jets, Browns, Bucs, and Jaguars all have a seat at that table.

If Jamie's so good, why was he in an open competition with Taysom Hill for the starting QB job. Last year, he got replaced by Andy Dalton for heavens sake.

Some theorized that Taysom only got that because CSP promised him a shot but truth be told, who knows if it was really an open competition. And dude had a broken back and a ruptured tendon in his foot that I think he is still rehabbing for.

The coaches know he is not a franchise QB. He's now very gun-shy and timid. Throwing 33 in's will do that to you.

While throwing 30 interceptions, the Bucs were still #3 in points and yards. That's the thing that people really don't talk about.

He's playing scared when he's on the field. You can't do that as a starting QB.

Sadly, that's been a knock against Carr since he broke his leg in 2016. Hopefully, the boys up front keep him safe.

 

[David Robbins]

Check this out too, especially the last paragraph

Saints Ultimate Fantasy Football Preview

Fantasy football drafts will be here before we know it, with some already getting into their prep work ahead of training camps and preseason action. The New Orleans Saints have traditionally provided some nice gems that can help you win your leagues, but the past two years have been a mixed bag...

saintsreport.com

 

[liveoakh]

Nope, no parade. I’d say the same exact thing. Carr is lucky he’s 5-2. Tg we have a great D, because hes looking timid out there. Why is he forcing the damn ball 30 yards down the field when Kamara is wide open in the flat with daylight in front of him and all we need is 5 yards for a first? Now we’re punting. Like I said, JW was ascending albeit slowly, but an injury de-railed him. I have NO idea how Carr will perform with the Saints, so I don’t have a built in bias like you’re saying I do. Or whoever “you guys” is, I assume it’s ”you guys” is white people. Fine. But if you can only see black and white you’ll miss out on the high yellows like Mahomes lol. (Sorry I had to) This is not a black / white debate. Or the assumption that one is better at Qb than the other. This is about what we’re seeing on the field of play.

I'm puzzled by how you think anything I said above is race related. "You guys" refers to the collection historical revisionist, who seem to extemporaneously interject Jamies into narratives about his play or being traded, or crabs. Jamies hasn't had a complete season to judge his skills by. He has been injured 2x playing for us, and your offended he can't find Kamara w/ his fractured back? You better hope Jamies can light it up, because every starting QB for the Saints going back 4 yrs has missed games.

We would have to ask ourselves why is the back up QB the subject at all? 95% of Saints report love Jamies as a man and team mate. The B/W race thing is just the by product of the internet. It amplifies the voice of everyone, but sometimes it is only the 5% of the people who race matters to.....get herd.