The Electric Vehicle (EV) discussion thread (Merged)

[Infoman]

By the same numbers you presented, you must not know 12 people.

Its pretty simple. Next time you go car shopping be sure to ask for a car that is slower, louder, dirtier, dumber and requires more maintenance

The only downside at this stage is infrastructure and those wounds are fully self inflicted. This is true for 90% of Americans.

For the 10% that arent constantly towing or logistics companies, diesel is still king and likely will be for some time. I get that.

Yep - I know a dozen or so people that are lunatics that have no regard for price or practicality...

And for most people the deciding factor for buying a vehicle is not speed, looks, tech, or maintenance schedule.... It's price, monthly note, insurance, price, price, and function / fuel economy... then maybe color or style.

I do well... I still know very few people that are willing to spend upwards of $100k on an EV

I know there are people with deep pockets that can be idealistic when purchasing a vehicle... good for them... they are not the majority of car buyers in the US

 

[superchuck500]

The EV market share for new vehicle sales in February 2024 was approximately 6.5%, compared to 83.1% for gas-powered vehicles, according to Edmunds sales data. If we look at things from a broader perspective, electric cars account for 1% of all registered vehicles on the road in the U.S., according to Experian Automotive's Market Trends third quarter 2023 report.

What Is the Percentage of Electric Cars in the U.S.? | Edmunds

More than 1 million EVs were sold for the first time last year, but what percentage of all vehicles do they make up on U.S. roads today?

www.edmunds.com

My humble opinion on this is simple... A very large portion of the buying public does not want to buy an EV... And a very large portion of the small portion that does want to to buy one, can't afford them... or they are not practical / cost effective for daily use... and hence are not a realistic option.

I have never seen in my life so many viable profit based companies try to produce and sell the US public something with so little demand for it, at such a premium price, and with little to no infrastructure to support it...

I think there is a market for EV's.... but the market is not your mainstream everyday middle class US driver.... and that's why it will tank until some tech breakthrough makes them cheaper, much faster to charge, and provide practical and plentiful ways to extend range. Until then, they will continue to be a 5 -10% US market novelty.

I don't think your take is wrong - it's very substantially correct from its stated perspective.

But there is also more to the story. EV sales are continuing to grow on a trajectory. As long as the sales are significant and growing, the manufacturers are going to want to be in on it - particularly if the product is seen as the coming of a likely future.




Now look at the rest of the world. Nearly 40% of car sales in China are EV and about 25% in Europe. Automakers have markets that they focus on but they all also participate in a global market. It just isn't likely that the long-term growth trend in the US is going to go flat or reverse - though certainly individual quarters or even years may see fluctuations due to various factors.





And as a market, it is still fairly infant. Consider that the first production line gasoline cars were circa 1890 and the first production line EVs was circa 1998, so we're about 1916 for EVs . . . but with a much steeper technology development curve now.

Charging speed and range are almost certainly going to be subject to major innovation in the next five years - and that really will be a substantial improvement. I think the power grid concerns are also there in the macro and will need to improve. And for sure, the cost of entry is still too high, plain and simple.

But think that EV really is a new mode in automotive transportation that appeals more broadly to consumers that you're giving credit to - but the vast, vast majority of US drivers have never even driven an EV, much less owned or had daily access to one. They aren't for everyone to be sure, they don't need to be - but they have substantial appeal to many consumers and as the hurdles are reduced, I think the share will continue to increase.

Trends in electric cars – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA

Global EV Outlook 2024 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

 

[Infoman]

I don't think your take is wrong - it's very substantially correct from its stated perspective.

But there is also more to the story. EV sales are continuing to grow on a trajectory. As long as the sales are significant and growing, the manufacturers are going to want to be in on it - particularly if the product is seen as the coming of a likely future.




Now look at the rest of the world. Nearly 40% of car sales in China are EV and about 25% in Europe. Automakers have markets that they focus on but they all also participate in a global market. It just isn't likely that the long-term growth trend in the US is going to go flat or reverse - though certainly individual quarters or even years may see fluctuations due to various factors.





And as a market, it is still fairly infant. Consider that the first production line gasoline cars were circa 1890 and the first production line EVs was circa 1998, so we're about 1916 for EVs . . . but with a much steeper technology development curve now.

Charging speed and range are almost certainly going to be subject to major innovation in the next five years - and that really will be a substantial improvement. I think the power grid concerns are also there in the macro and will need to improve. And for sure, the cost of entry is still too high, plain and simple.

But think that EV really is a new mode in automotive transportation that appeals more broadly to consumers that you're giving credit to - but the vast, vast majority of US drivers have never even driven an EV, much less owned or had daily access to one. They aren't for everyone to be sure, they don't need to be - but they have substantial appeal to many consumers and as the hurdles are reduced, I think the share will continue to increase.

Trends in electric cars – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA

Global EV Outlook 2024 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

I've seen some of these numbers... I think the EV market hits a hard wall at some point in a sense that - everyone who can afford one, and wants one... will eventually buy one... Then you have the "other half of the US" that doesn't live in a city... They live in the extended suburbs and rural areas... they grew up on mustangs, loud pipes, lifted trucks, hauling loads, dirt roads, ATVs, etc. Most of them won't have access to EV infrastructure any time in the near future... and good luck talking them into giving up the lifted F-250 on 35's for a Nissan Leaf or Rivian. Then you have the vast majority of the major inner city poor, broke college kids, lower-middle class trade and service workers, retired and elderly... They will never be in the market either... they can't even afford a car period... much less an EV.

 

[superchuck500]

I've seen some of these numbers... I think the EV market hits a hard wall at some point in a sense that - everyone who can afford one, and wants one... will eventually buy one... Then you have the "other half of the US" that doesn't live in a city... They live in the extended suburbs and rural areas... they grew up on mustangs, loud pipes, lifted trucks, hauling loads, dirt roads, ATVs, etc. Most of them won't have access to EV infrastructure any time in the near future... and good luck talking them into giving up the lifted F-250 on 35's for a Nissan Leaf or Rivian. Then you have the vast majority of the major inner city poor, broke college kids, lower-middle class trade and service workers, retired and elderly... They will never be in the market either... they can't even afford a car period... much less an EV.

Where are you getting this idea that EV is supposed to appeal to everyone in the United States? I don't understand this response - and you're by no means alone. My cousin, who drives a 1969 GTO, is always sending me these anti-EV memes and it's just weird. He drinks Coors Light, but I don't send him memes sheetting on Coors Light.

And if you're talking about the new car market, why would you need to talk about all of the people that can't actually participate in it - how is that relevant? But if you want to talk about economics of ownership, I think that the long term track of EV is more promising to provide low-cost cars to segments of the population that can't afford gasoline cars because the cost of operation is so much lower. Of course, I'm talking very long term but it's a new technology - there's so much possible.

Certainly we are seeing local fleet operations transitioning to EV purely on the fact that the cost of energy ("fuel"), maintenance costs, and lost time due to maintenance are so much lower that the cross-over point to justify the higher acquisition cost is fairly early in the life-cycle. Those kinds of economics will benefit consumers as well when the charging and range issues are resolved.

But if you can charge at your residence or work site and don't really need long range, the cost of ownership (after purchase) is substantially less - especially if you include time value calculations on not having to go get gas and the reduced time in scheduled maintenance and repair.

 

[Infoman]

Where are you getting this idea that EV is supposed to appeal to everyone in the United States? I don't understand this response - and you're by no means alone. My cousin, who drives a 1969 GTO, is always sending me these anti-EV memes and it's just weird. He drinks Coors Light, but I don't send him memes sheetting on Coors Light.

And if you're talking about the new car market, why would you need to talk about all of the people that can't actually participate in it - how is that relevant? But if you want to talk about economics of ownership, I think that the long term track of EV is more promising to provide low-cost cars to segments of the population that can't afford gasoline cars because the cost of operation is so much lower. Of course, I'm talking very long term but it's a new technology - there's so much possible.

Certainly we are seeing local fleet operations transitioning to EV purely on the fact that the cost of energy ("fuel"), maintenance costs, and lost time due to maintenance are so much lower that the cross-over point to justify the higher acquisition cost is fairly early in the life-cycle. Those kinds of economics will benefit consumers as well when the charging and range issues are resolved.

But if you can charge at your residence or work site and don't really need long range, the cost of ownership (after purchase) is substantially less - especially if you include time value calculations on not having to go get gas and the reduced time in scheduled maintenance and repair.

Didn't say they needed to appeal to everyone... my point was... it doesn't appeal to the vast majority of car buyers for a myriad of reasons today.... and I am pointing out who they are, and why they are not buying.

We can nit pick who they are and are not.... but in broad terms they are who I am identifying... the sales numbers say so... Who can and who will buy is totally relevant when you have car lots that can't sell the things.

https://www.businessinsider.com/auto-dealerships-inventory-electric-vehicles-gas-cars-key-problems-2023-6#:~:text=New car inventory on dealer,343% from a year ago.

It's a 5 - 10% sales market... it will stay that way unless a ton of changes and advances are made in all aspects that we already touched on.

EV markets will consist of upper-middle class/middle class (or better) private owners, large city and close proximity suburbanites within that group, and corporate fleet.... and not much else.

Urban folks, apartment folks, duplex folks, college students, etc etc etc may not have a residence capable of charging and no INFRA nearby... my point is there are only a finite number of people who CAN get an EV... and even more finite that WILL get an EV...

As an engineer... my plan would have been rechargeable gas/electric hybrids only until all the infrastructure issues, range issues, and cost issues were addressed... and most importantly a diverse market was there for full EVs to take hold in it.

 

[NewOrleansFan]

Less than $10,000 EV. We are way behind.

BYD's new EV, starting at less than $10,000, is stoking fear across the industry

Leading EV maker BYD shook the industry after unveiling the new Seagull (Dolphin Mini), with starting prices as low as...

electrek.co

 

[superchuck500]

Didn't say they needed to appeal to everyone... my point was... it doesn't appeal to the vast majority of car buyers for a myriad of reasons today.... and I am pointing out who they are, and why they are not buying.

We can nit pick who they are and are not.... but in broad terms they are who I am identifying... the sales numbers say so... Who can and who will buy is totally relevant when you have car lots that can't sell the things.

https://www.businessinsider.com/auto-dealerships-inventory-electric-vehicles-gas-cars-key-problems-2023-6#:~:text=New car inventory on dealer,343% from a year ago.

It's a 5 - 10% sales market... it will stay that way unless a ton of changes and advances are made in all aspects that we already touched on.

EV markets will consist of upper-middle class/middle class (or better) private owners, large city and close proximity suburbanites within that group, and corporate fleet.... and not much else.

Urban folks, apartment folks, duplex folks, college students, etc etc etc may not have a residence capable of charging and no INFRA nearby... my point is there are only a finite number of people who CAN get an EV... and even more finite that WILL get an EV...

As an engineer... my plan would have been rechargeable gas/electric hybrids only until all the infrastructure issues, range issues, and cost issues were addressed... and most importantly a diverse market was there for full EVs to take hold in it.

You say these things - but they don’t really hold up examination, which suggests that these are feelings more than thoughtful analysis. That’s fine, you’re entitled to have feelings, but the reality is far more nuanced than what appears to be feelings you have about it . . . for whatever reason.

The average price of a new ICE car sold in the United States right now is $47,218. The average price of a new EV sold in the US is $53,758. The top 5 most popular EV cars sold in the US right now have models priced under the average ICE car price, including the popular Tesla Model 3 ($38,990) and the Hyundai Ioniq-5 ($41,650). People are spending big money on new cars, both ICE and EV - new cars are just expensive these days.

Another data point you reference is people whose living arrangements don't allow for home charging. If you look at the numbers, about 2/3 (67%) of Americans live in single-family homes - where adding a home charge-point is not only viable but cost effective. On top of that, it is estimated that about 5% of residential complexes have charging available . . . yes, it's a low number but it is something that is happening and likely to grow in availability. The idea that home charging is not available to most Americans is just plain inaccurate.

What is a far more sensible explanation is that EV is new and adoption is slow. Yes, for large segments of the US population EV is not appealing - for many of them that is due to practical reasons (like they actually do need the range) but for many others it is due to either ignorance or prejudice . . . both of which are real and simply part of how a large market operates. There are human factors at play to be sure.

But to think that the EV share of the US market has been growing steadily - and will simply stop at 5 to 10% because feelings is not persuasive. I think it all continues to grow, perhaps more slowly at times and more rapidly at times - and that growth will include new models, new technology, new developments in range and charging availability. And it will include, necessarily, new buyers.

Report: The Average Price of a New Vehicle

New vehicle prices are slowly falling, which is good news. Here is the average price of a new vehicle right now and how you can save.

clark.com

Electric Car Prices: The Average Electric Car Cost in 2024

How much does an electric car cost in 2024? See average electric car prices, costs & more right now!

www.findmyelectric.com

Topic: Single-family homes in the U.S.

Find the most up-to-date statistics and facts on single family homes in the United States

www.statista.com

 

[superchuck500]

Okay okay, enough about EVs I think we can agree this is cool, yes @Infoman ?

 

[Tapxe]

You say these things - but they don’t really hold up examination, which suggests that these are feelings more than thoughtful analysis. That’s fine, you’re entitled to have feelings, but the reality is far more nuanced than what appears to be feelings you have about it . . . for whatever reason.

The average price of a new ICE car sold in the United States right now is $47,218. The average price of a new EV sold in the US is $53,758. The top 5 most popular EV cars sold in the US right now have models priced under the average ICE car price, including the popular Tesla Model 3 ($38,990) and the Hyundai Ioniq-5 ($41,650). People are spending big money on new cars, both ICE and EV - new cars are just expensive these days.

Another data point you reference is people whose living arrangements don't allow for home charging. If you look at the numbers, about 2/3 (67%) of Americans live in single-family homes - where adding a home charge-point is not only viable but cost effective. On top of that, it is estimated that about 5% of residential complexes have charging available . . . yes, it's a low number but it is something that is happening and likely to grow in availability. The idea that home charging is not available to most Americans is just plain inaccurate.

What is a far more sensible explanation is that EV is new and adoption is slow. Yes, for large segments of the US population EV is not appealing - for many of them that is due to practical reasons (like they actually do need the range) but for many others it is due to either ignorance or prejudice . . . both of which are real and simply part of how a large market operates. There are human factors at play to be sure.

But to think that the EV share of the US market has been growing steadily - and will simply stop at 5 to 10% because feelings is not persuasive. I think it all continues to grow, perhaps more slowly at times and more rapidly at times - and that growth will include new models, new technology, new developments in range and charging availability. And it will include, necessarily, new buyers.

Report: The Average Price of a New Vehicle

New vehicle prices are slowly falling, which is good news. Here is the average price of a new vehicle right now and how you can save.

clark.com

Electric Car Prices: The Average Electric Car Cost in 2024

How much does an electric car cost in 2024? See average electric car prices, costs & more right now!

www.findmyelectric.com

Topic: Single-family homes in the U.S.

Find the most up-to-date statistics and facts on single family homes in the United States

www.statista.com

I think it misses many factors too such as younger generations do not idolize cars like older ones. Something like 25% don't drive and I recall Ford as far back as 2007 admitting they have no idea how to build a car they desire.

I see them as a good target for a fleet of self driving ev Ubers. I think many realize it's cheaper pay for a car service than own a car in urban settings.

I would not be surprised if the ultimate plan is CAAS (car as a service) modeled like the ZIP cars here in downtown BR. It's 35$ a year to sign up and 9$ per hour to use last I checked. Compare that to insurance, registration, maintenance, parking costs etc, and it is quickly a much better deal to use a resource only at point of need.

 

[Infoman]

The average price of a new ICE car sold in the United States right now is $47,218. The average price of a new EV sold in the US is $53,758. The top 5 most popular EV cars sold in the US right now have models priced under the average ICE car price, including the popular Tesla Model 3 ($38,990) and the Hyundai Ioniq-5 ($41,650). People are spending big money on new cars, both ICE and EV - new cars are just expensive these days.

I know this will come as a shock to some posters here that can afford $100k+ vehicles but... When (According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor), the average U.S. annual salary in Q4 of 2023 is $59,384... affording a vehicle that's $40k is out of reach... a price difference of $5k is a deal breaker... when you don't own a house and can't supply a charging station, even a used EV isn't an option... Without charging infra outside most high-population areas... If you don't use the EV for commutes only... How do you make consistent necessary long distance trips without buying a secondary ICE vehicle? Is there an EV that's going to pull my 8k lbs camper, 4wheeler, pontoon boat, and make it through the mud (new or used) that I can get for under $80K? Can I charge it in the woods?

Look lawyer guy (LOL) - I am not trying to be a downer on EVs... I am fine with the concept, and certainly not against the advancement of the EV market... I was one of the first people to go out an buy a hybrid in the early 2000's (for my wife when we lived in the city and had a commute - It made sense and cents)

The fact of the matter is that EVs are no longer new to the market... and they have a miniscule footprint in it because none of the things I am talking about are being meaningfully addressed... It will stay around the levels they are at IMO (or fall due to new buyers going cheaper routes due to insane inflation) unless the industry and officials address consumer needs and concerns.

Even if they do... there will always be a large portion of the US that simply will not want them, and simply can't afford them. A close family member of mine is a GFM of a huge used car dealership on the Gulf Coast - they won't even buy anymore EVs at auction... They can't sell them... They sit on the lot 3X longer than ICE's and they end up giving them away.

Much has to change before EVs work for a the majority of the US.

 

[efil4stnias]

I know this will come as a shock to some posters here that can afford $100k+ vehicles but... When (According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor), the average U.S. annual salary in Q4 of 2023 is $59,384... affording a vehicle that's $40k is out of reach... a price difference of $5k is a deal breaker... when you don't own a house and can't supply a charging station, even a used EV isn't an option... Without charging infra outside most high-population areas... If you don't use the EV for commutes only... How do you make consistent necessary long distance trips without buying a secondary ICE vehicle? Is there an EV that's going to pull my 8k lbs camper, 4wheeler, pontoon boat, and make it through the mud (new or used) that I can get for under $80K?

lol- you just talked about median income in one sentence.

then ended the thought with the EV ability to pull your travel trailer ( $25,000 ), your ATV ( $8000 ) and your pontoon boat ( $50,000 ) and you complain about the price of the vehicle used to pull these items? ( average pricing- could be more depending on year/make/model )

Oh and yes...there is.

Rivians R1T- 11k towing capacity. 2022 goes for about $60k.

 

[Penguin]

Not a full EV, but finally dipped my toe in the pond with a PHEV. Had it for 2 weeks and the gas tank is still 7/8ths full. I like to take weekend road trips. Range and charging infrastructure lead to the conclusion that PHEV was best for me.

 

[Infoman]

lol- you just talked about median income in one sentence.

then ended the thought with the EV ability to pull your travel trailer ( $25,000 ), your ATV ( $8000 ) and your pontoon boat ( $50,000 ) and you complain about the price of the vehicle used to pull these items? ( average pricing- could be more depending on year/make/model )

Oh and yes...there is.

Rivians R1T- 11k towing capacity. 2022 goes for about $60k.

Yes, I wasn't referring to my income... I was referring to the overall context of what the average American makes - and how that relates/correlates to buying power in the EV market... I am not the Average American.

And technically I do own an EV as well... it's an EZGO RTX - I use it everyday in the yard to move stuff and get lawn things done... even take out the trash... and pick wild blackberries.... So I am doing my part sir.

 

[Infoman]

Rivians R1T- 11k towing capacity. 2022 goes for about $60k.

LOL - Can I charge it at my hunting camp on my 5500W gas generator... will it go 400 miles... can it take less than 24 hours to charge on a 110v if I have to leave suddenly... asking for a friend?