The next head coach is inheriting a mess (3 Viewers)

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Its definitely not an ideal landing spot, and the cap problems are real. On Moving the Chains today, Pat made a good point. Any new coach they bring in is going to want to shake up the roster because they don’t want to keep the players that got the last guy fired. Dead money will make it difficult to do that unless players that should retire will sign up for a Brees-like exit.

The next coach would need to be assured that year one is “do what you can with what you have”, and then they’ll give them some slack to overhaul the roster the following year(s) without judging them too heavily on early performance. I’m assuming Payton received similar assurance about his first year with Wilson, who pretty much weighed down the Broncos entire cap single-handedly.

I mean, that was always the argument for keeping Allen, in that any coach they bring in won't have the draft capital or FA money to completely overhaul the roster in a way that Payton was afforded in 2006.

 

[Bill]

The organization will really have to sell itself and I also think, offer patience and stability to a new hire, knowing the conditions aren’t in place for a quick turnaround.

No coach worth his salt would sign a contract without some guarantees that he would get just what you are suggesting.

 

[Rouxble]

I mean, that was always the argument for keeping Allen, in that any coach they bring in won't have the draft capital or FA money to completely overhaul the roster in a way that Payton was afforded in 2006.

Just going off PFR, we ended up with eight new starters on offense and seven on defense in 2006, including a new QB. With more than half the roster overturned, we went from 3-13 to NFC runner ups. The next coach won’t have nearly as much flexibility to make so many changes, particularly to the most important position on the field.

 

[DirtyHarry1551]

Whoever the team decides to lead it, we have to stop reaching in the draft on potential greatness in the first 3 rounds. Davenport and Turner are 2 of the worst picks on potential.

 

[DavidM]

No coach worth his salt would sign a contract without some guarantees that he would get just what you are suggesting.

Of course. AFAIK coaching contracts are generally guaranteed. That’s not my point.

I’ll just use arbitrary numbers to speculate with but let’s say Johnson’s market value (which is vague with coaches) is $5 million a year, maybe the Saints have to be aggressive at $6 million a year. (Again, arbitrary, to frame my thoughts).

We don’t care because it’s Gayle’s money.

Next is patience. That’s where it gets trickier from a fan’s perspective. We might be calling for a coach to be fired 5 games into his third years while the team already decided it would take more time, but now they have an unhappy fan base.

To that end, I’m acknowledging all the circumstances point to a very rocky extended stretch of seasons (unless we get a lot of luck) and how that might influence the team with their next hire.

 

[gregh]

I thought this was the case when the team was looking to replace Payton, too, and I’m not sure the circumstances are going to be much better. People will say there are only 32 of these jobs but I think top candidates are more selective than we ever hear about.

The QB room might be more attractive than it was then and while this isn’t looking like a strong QB draft, it doesn’t look 2020 bad.

The cap is going to be a problem and this isn’t a very talented or deep roster.

The organization will really have to sell itself and I also think, offer patience and stability to a new hire, knowing the conditions aren’t in place for a quick turnaround. A lot of good luck can change that but I think the team is going to have to set realistic expectations and be overly competitive on compensation and conditions.

Anybody feel better about it or see it differently?

usually teams that fire coaches arent in great shape

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Just going off PFR, we ended up with eight new starters on offense and seven on defense in 2006, including a new QB. With more than half the roster overturned, we went from 3-13 to NFC runner ups. The next coach won’t have nearly as much flexibility to make so many changes, particularly to the most important position on the field.

Most of 2006 was accomplished by right QB right HC combo. The formula is possible to hit w/ a rookie HC/rookie QB but it seems like the Saints have figured out that it's easier going the veteran QB route. That means Carr likely stays another year and you're hoping the new offensive staff can do what no one other than Gruden has, and squeeze the most out of Carr w/ a serious eye towards developing Rattler/Haener.

I'd love Ben Johnson but this is one of the most unattractive jobs for at least 2 more years. Best case scenario is that Rizzie sparks something, and we keep most of the offensive staff for a 2nd year. I'm somewhere between a QB can solve everything and this situation could break any rookie QB.

 

[DavidM]

usually teams that fire coaches arent in great shape

Nobody has mentioned this yet.

 

[Bill]

Of course. AFAIK coaching contracts are generally guaranteed. That’s not my point.

I’ll just use arbitrary numbers to speculate with but let’s say Johnson’s market value (which is vague with coaches) is $5 million a year, maybe the Saints have to be aggressive at $6 million a year. (Again, arbitrary, to frame my thoughts).

We don’t care because it’s Gayle’s money.

Next is patience. That’s where it gets trickier from a fan’s perspective. We might be calling for a coach to be fired 5 games into his third years while the team already decided it would take more time, but now they have an unhappy fan base.

To that end, I’m acknowledging all the circumstances point to a very rocky extended stretch of seasons (unless we get a lot of luck) and how that might influence the team with their next hire.

I’m talking about guaranteed TIME, not guaranteed money.
The new coach would have to know that he’ll have the full support of Gayle and the GM to make the Saints great again.

 

[ELLIASJWILLIAMS]

Nobody has mentioned this yet.

Specifically when you have to follow him mid-season. It was like our final "were still a good organization" schtick, and now we look like other organizations. Stil don't think we're quite dumpster fire but alas, it's not looking good.

 

[solarbear88]

Alot will depend on how the trade deadline is approached. If one or two contracts are purged our Cap will not be that bad next year. I expect Cam will retire and Latimore might move those are two big contracts right there.

We should have a high draft pick which could be used for the coach to pick his own QB, or if one is not up to their standards, trade and fortifiy the weak areas of the team. Either way you still have Carr who can act as the bridging QB for the next couple of years. This team is going to need a couple solid drafts; a couple starters and a couple solid back ups are going to need to be found each draft AND a franchise QB. But with only Sanders and Ward looking the goods, I don't think us fixing the franchise QB problem will happen in this draft.

 

[DavidM]

Specifically when you have to follow him mid-season. It was like our final "were still a good organization" schtick, and now we look like other organizations. Stil don't think we're quite dumpster fire but alas, it's not looking good.

Definitely not a dumpster fire. It’s just a lazy retort to say all coaching vacancies are under bad circumstances when those bad circumstances can vary quite a bit.

 

[DavidM]

I’m talking about guaranteed TIME, not guaranteed money.
The new coach would have to know that he’ll have the full support of Gayle and the GM to make the Saints great again.

That’s why I’m also talking about patience. Do you mean specifically the next coach or in general?

I don’t know what Allen was told but I don’t think we can expect much over the next 2-3 years.

 

[Mojomajik9]

I believe there’s some positives. You do have an owner and organization that will support a coach and give them time. Mrs B also isn’t a meddler.

The roster isn’t bad. There are good pieces here. A great draft or two and we could be stacked.

The division is up for grabs and no team is head and shoulders better. So the opportunity to compete for a division title right out of the gate is a possibility.

The fan base is patient and understanding

 

[No2DC]

I don't honestly think Kubiak is that good, but he was a sought after guy.

I mean sure all three of those jobs with either a pick to draft one of the two best QB prospects in years and the Chargers who had a good team and potential franchise QB were better jobs. But I don't think those types of opportunities are available this year unless a coach thinks Williams is going to be the guy.

But, that doesn't mean you can't get a good coach.

I don't disagree, I don't think we get the guy everyone think is the best. That said, Quinn was Washington's second choice over Johnson and he seems to be doing great in his first year. This is why I think Loomis has to be moved. Both Detroit and Washington brought in a GM and let them choose the coach. The other route is the Shanahan way, where you choose a coach and let him bring his own guy in as GM.