Ukraine (37 Viewers)

[efil4stnias]

I completely understand that and agree.

I also don't think Russia is going to fold up and leave town. This is going to have to end one of 3 ways. Russia collapse, regime change or full out war. Thankfully, I no longer think our elections will change that. EU is ready to go all in alone if needed.

It isn't just using western weapons to strike Russia. I don't think that red line being crossed will result in anything rash but I do see it being a constant escalation. China is getting more involved, several EU countries are ready to just start sending troops. We are sending F-16's that will further escalate. Putin is having small scale acts of war take place in EU countries and possibly even the US. While we are escalating, Russia has had it's foot on the gas the whole time and is the aggressor so don't take this as any of the propaganda talk in support of Russia, it's absolutely not that.

My point is I feel like we just passed the last offramp and the next exit is 200 miles away. I'm not saying we'll be lobbing nukes back and forth this weekend but the reality that we are on the brink of a major war has set in.

They absolutely are ( The EU ) because they fully understand the stakes.

We have been "stair-stepping" this whole conflict. Which makes me frustrated because had the West fully committed back in 2022, Putin would have been faced with the "escalation" of hostilities mantra. Now, that is flipped. Any Western response/reply with additional aid is deemed "escalatory"

This entire conflict has been marred by this narrative. Russia was the first to wipe out Bucha. Irpin. The Opera Hall. They were the first to attack civilian infrastructure whit cruise missiles, S300/400, ballistic missiles and now 1000-2500lb glide bombs ( Most recent was the "Epicenter" - Home Depot like store on a Saturday afternoon) yet none of these actions are deemed "escalatory" - instead they are pawned off as "well thats what Russia does"

And we are somewhat to blame because we simply didnt match from the outset. Always reactionary. And it takes time- and as time passes, we tend to forget the WHY - So we were always going to be viewed from the lens of "the west is escalating this by sending 'x' to Ukraine"

maddening that the powers that be simply hoped this would all peter out thru its own volition. They completely underestimated Putin and his desires for a renewed Soviet Bloc, which he made abundantly clear prior to Feb 2022. West just didnt want to really believe it.

Too late.

its akin to ANY conflict...want to end it quick? dont play.

If you walk up to me and start slapping me in the face, and i put up defenses and say " hey man stop" - you keep slapping. If you walk up to me and start slapping me in the face and i knock your teeth out with one punch, you are no longer slapping me.

 

[baarbogast]

 

[DaveXA]

Kinda wild we're gonna be one of the last ones to declare this. Lol.

 

[baarbogast]

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

I completely understand that and agree.

I also don't think Russia is going to fold up and leave town. This is going to have to end one of 3 ways. Russia collapse, regime change or full out war. Thankfully, I no longer think our elections will change that. EU is ready to go all in alone if needed.

It isn't just using western weapons to strike Russia. I don't think that red line being crossed will result in anything rash but I do see it being a constant escalation. China is getting more involved, several EU countries are ready to just start sending troops. We are sending F-16's that will further escalate. Putin is having small scale acts of war take place in EU countries and possibly even the US. While we are escalating, Russia has had it's foot on the gas the whole time and is the aggressor so don't take this as any of the propaganda talk in support of Russia, it's absolutely not that.

My point is I feel like we just passed the last offramp and the next exit is 200 miles away. I'm not saying we'll be lobbing nukes back and forth this weekend but the reality that we are on the brink of a major war has set in.

Both sides I believe want a ceasefire, as neither can significanlty improve their position. Yes Russia isn't going to pack up and go home, but neither is Ukraine.

It could take some type of black swan event. I personally cannot see regime collapse in Russia. But Putin could decide, continuing to fight is risky and a waste of resources. But he wants Ukraine to be the one to blink. In any case, there is zero chance Russia gives up Donetsk/Luhansk/Crimea without a fight. I doubt they would even move the current battle lines much, except where it makes tactical sense.

There could be political pressure on Ukraine for a ceasfire. Its really about the terms. They aren't going to recognize territorial acquisitions, and without some external guarantee from Western countries, they wouldn't sign anything because they know Putin would just rebuild and attack again.

Obviously if a certain person wins in November, something along these lines is going to be the likely outcome.

 

[baarbogast]

 

[baarbogast]

 

[baarbogast]

Do they have the Purina logo on their planes?

 

[baarbogast]

 

[efil4stnias]

Both sides I believe want a ceasefire, as neither can significanlty improve their position. Yes Russia isn't going to pack up and go home, but neither is Ukraine.

It could take some type of black swan event. I personally cannot see regime collapse in Russia. But Putin could decide, continuing to fight is risky and a waste of resources. But he wants Ukraine to be the one to blink. In any case, there is zero chance Russia gives up Donetsk/Luhansk/Crimea without a fight. I doubt they would even move the current battle lines much, except where it makes tactical sense.

There could be political pressure on Ukraine for a ceasfire. Its really about the terms. They aren't going to recognize territorial acquisitions, and without some external guarantee from Western countries, they wouldn't sign anything because they know Putin would just rebuild and attack again.

Obviously if a certain person wins in November, something along these lines is going to be the likely outcome.

lets be clear....if a certain person wins in November, Ukraine is lost to Russia. Pure and simple. There is no "freezing the lines" as they currently stand. Its literally the whole thing. Kyiv will fall.

And once that happens, he will consolidate, rearm, resupply, replenish and move on Moldova. And who knows what country is next because the EU cannot defend Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Moldova. Poland should be wary.

Putin is trying to completely rearrange global power/influence. China is currently playing both sides of the fence and once they feel they see where the "winner" will be, they will fall on that side.

 

[efil4stnias]

 

[SoggyBottomBoy]

If you walk up to me and start slapping me in the face, and i put up defenses and say " hey man stop" - you keep slapping. If you walk up to me and start slapping me in the face and i knock your teeth out with one punch, you are no longer slapping me.

Russia initially thought they were walking up to one-punch Ukraine knocking out their teeth and their resolve to fight back, but discovered all they were capable of was slapping. So, the slap fight ensues.

I hope the destruction of many Russian air defense systems allows the delivery of F-16s and such to be affective. And with all of the EU green lighting their equipment for attacks on Russian soil, it's beyond time for us to do so, as well. Ukraine hasn't been attacking civilian targets and as long as that stipulation is in place, let them fire away.

 

[SamAndreas]

I completely understand that and agree.

I also don't think Russia is going to fold up and leave town. This is going to have to end one of 3 ways. Russia collapse, regime change or full out war. Thankfully, I no longer think our elections will change that. EU is ready to go all in alone if needed.

It isn't just using western weapons to strike Russia. I don't think that red line being crossed will result in anything rash but I do see it being a constant escalation. China is getting more involved, several EU countries are ready to just start sending troops. We are sending F-16's that will further escalate. Putin is having small scale acts of war take place in EU countries and possibly even the US. While we are escalating, Russia has had it's foot on the gas the whole time and is the aggressor so don't take this as any of the propaganda talk in support of Russia, it's absolutely not that.

My point is I feel like we just passed the last offramp and the next exit is 200 miles away. I'm not saying we'll be lobbing nukes back and forth this weekend but the reality that we are on the brink of a major war has set in.

I don't see this latest addition to the ongoing debate as being what it seems.

This issue of what the US allows Ukraine to do with the weapons we give them is a false misleading narrative which has been created for the effect it will have on the populations of the countries who are not at war at this time.

It has a clearly defined purpose for which it is performing very well. That purpose is to mobilize us as a people for total war.

it creates a choice every person in the US and all of Europe must wrestle with. do we pitch in and get behind the full war effort, or not?

Which side do we join? The side we join is part and parcel of the issue we're wrestling with in our minds because this created issue forces us to wrestle with it on an individual emotional basis at home around the supper table.



We went through this before WWII. Our coming in on the allies side of the war wasn't cast in iron as to which side we would choose in the end. There were plenty of people in the US who thought the Nazi ideals for an ordered society were nifty. My guess is the distribution of views amoung the populations was then, much as it is now.

This issue is is the galvanizing moment of mobilizations, it's old hat. It's time to choose our side for real. The home folks have to choose. That's our way.

It's not a free choice. They have to choose or the war will not go well for them. They have to learn to HATE the enemy in the way which is " just and proper" as well.

It's not a free choice, get over that idea.

 

[efil4stnias]

Russia initially thought they were walking up to one-punch Ukraine knocking out their teeth and their resolve to fight back, but discovered all they were capable of was slapping. So, the slap fight ensues.

I hope the destruction of many Russian air defense systems allows the delivery of F-16s and such to be affective. And with all of the EU green lighting their equipment for attacks on Russian soil, it's beyond time for us to do so, as well. Ukraine hasn't been attacking civilian targets and as long as that stipulation is in place, let them fire away.

Ukraine doesnt have the stocks to waste bombs or missiles on an apartment building.

Nor does Ukraine harbor the thought that "if we cant have it, no one will" ( Russian scorched earth tactics )

And yes, they slapped around Ukraine since 2014 with Crimea and Donbas. They miscalculated on the punch.

 

[Tapxe]

They absolutely are ( The EU ) because they fully understand the stakes.

We have been "stair-stepping" this whole conflict. Which makes me frustrated because had the West fully committed back in 2022, Putin would have been faced with the "escalation" of hostilities mantra. Now, that is flipped. Any Western response/reply with additional aid is deemed "escalatory"

This entire conflict has been marred by this narrative. Russia was the first to wipe out Bucha. Irpin. The Opera Hall. They were the first to attack civilian infrastructure whit cruise missiles, S300/400, ballistic missiles and now 1000-2500lb glide bombs ( Most recent was the "Epicenter" - Home Depot like store on a Saturday afternoon) yet none of these actions are deemed "escalatory" - instead they are pawned off as "well thats what Russia does"

And we are somewhat to blame because we simply didnt match from the outset. Always reactionary. And it takes time- and as time passes, we tend to forget the WHY - So we were always going to be viewed from the lens of "the west is escalating this by sending 'x' to Ukraine"

maddening that the powers that be simply hoped this would all peter out thru its own volition. They completely underestimated Putin and his desires for a renewed Soviet Bloc, which he made abundantly clear prior to Feb 2022. West just didnt want to really believe it.

Too late.

its akin to ANY conflict...want to end it quick? dont play.

If you walk up to me and start slapping me in the face, and i put up defenses and say " hey man stop" - you keep slapping. If you walk up to me and start slapping me in the face and i knock your teeth out with one punch, you are no longer slapping me.

That's seems a massively selective pov with cherry picked hindsight used for confirmation bias. I recall many many more variables and that's only counting the ones we know.