Ukraine (24 Viewers)

[livefromDC]

Trump playing into Putin's hands. If you listen to Russian state media, and their proxies in the West (Doug McGregor, etc.) their narrative has always been that Ukraine, and indeed most of Europe are basically a puppet of the US (to a lesser extent the UK) So this is effectively some "proxy war" against Russia. So Putin negotiating with the US directly makes sense, because any "settlement" can simply be imposed on Ukraine by the puppet master (US/UK)

I'm sure Putin all but demanded this in his phone calls with Trump. And it plays right into Trump's ego - that Ukraine should be able to do whatever he wants because the US is just propping them up anyway.

Of course, this is far from the truth, although Ukraine is playing with fire to a degree if they don't accept what may would see to be a "reasonable" settlement - freezing the conflict mostly on current lines, no Ukraine in NATO, etc.

It can be true that our circles are very different, but from my viewpoint many would not agree that this is a reasonable settlement.

 

[Sailorsaint]

Trump playing into Putin's hands. If you listen to Russian state media, and their proxies in the West (Doug McGregor, etc.) their narrative has always been that Ukraine, and indeed most of Europe are basically a puppet of the US (to a lesser extent the UK) So this is effectively some "proxy war" against Russia. So Putin negotiating with the US directly makes sense, because any "settlement" can simply be imposed on Ukraine by the puppet master (US/UK)

I'm sure Putin all but demanded this in his phone calls with Trump. And it plays right into Trump's ego - that Ukraine should be able to do whatever he wants because the US is just propping them up anyway.

Of course, this is far from the truth, although Ukraine is playing with fire to a degree if they don't accept what may would see to be a "reasonable" settlement - freezing the conflict mostly on current lines, no Ukraine in NATO, etc.

Freezing the conflict along current lines and prohibiting NATO membership is basically saying "Give me time to catch my breath, build up my military strength, then we'll have another go at it in a couple years.".

 

[Saintman2884]

Freezing the conflict along current lines and prohibiting NATO membership is basically saying "Give me time to catch my breath, build up my military strength, then we'll have another go at it in a couple years.".

I agree with your assessment for most part,.except it's probably going to take Putin and Russia maybe 5-10 years to even adequately recover, re-modernize, rebuild from being mangled, beaten up and devastated after losing over 850,000+ soldiers, drones, tanks, APC, logistical supply routes over the past 3 years and since this conflict might last a few more months before even the possibility of something resembling a negotiated peace agreement comes along and by that point, Putin and certainly Trump will be gone by that point. Trump will be 79 in a few months and some have been claiming for a few years now he's been suffering from the early onset of Alzheimer's-dementia, how's his condition going to be 1-2 years from now more then likely? Sure, his father lived until he was 93 but he wasnt under 30% of the same stress his son's been enduring (and still under) the past decade.

 

[efil4stnias]

Of course, this is far from the truth, although Ukraine is playing with fire to a degree if they don't accept what may would see to be a "reasonable" settlement - freezing the conflict mostly on current lines, no Ukraine in NATO, etc.

I'm not sure many people, that have paid attention since Feb 24 2022, would agree that freezing on "mostly" current lines and no NATO or any other security guarantees is in any way "reasonable".

Somehow folks think Ukraine has zero leverage. Trump showed his hand too early. He wants rare earth mineral rights. Exclusive. Now that Ukraine rejected his offer, he isn't in a terribly strong position other than cutting off aid. Which would be extremely detrimental to the US on a global stage. ( which may be his goal with America First anyway).

Ukraine countered with including EU in the deal and US rejected that.

Putin invaded a sovereign country. He did so for no other reason than to increase Russian "Sphere of influence" and Ukraine was simply step 1. He all in now. There is no turning back unless he gets almost everything he wants .

US is at a crossroads here. We have China and Russian threats and now we want to alienate Europe ? Something is afoot and I have an inclination that Trump is aligning with Putin.

 

[DCSaints_Fan]

Freezing the conflict along current lines and prohibiting NATO membership is basically saying "Give me time to catch my breath, build up my military strength, then we'll have another go at it in a couple years.".

There could be other guarantees beside NATO membership.

Reality of the situation on the ground is without direct intervention by a major power, Russia is going to continue to gain more and more ground, with or without US support. At a snails pace yes, but my bet would be Ukraine runs out of resources (men, material, etc.) before Russia.

I'm thinking that the other goal of negotiations might be to show that Russia's demans are unreasonable

Which could, ironically pave the way for increased aid or even direct intervention

 

[efil4stnias]

There could be other guarantees beside NATO membership.

Reality of the situation on the ground is without direct intervention by a major power, Russia is going to continue to gain more and more ground, with or without US support. At a snails pace yes, but my bet would be Ukraine runs out of resources (men, material, etc.) before Russia.

I'm thinking that the other goal of negotiations might be to show that Russia's demans are unreasonable

Which could, ironically pave the way for increased aid or even direct intervention

Things are starting to become clearer. Not long but pay attention to his last words. ( aside from the hard no on any territory concession )

 

[DaveXA]

Things are starting to become clearer. Not long but pay attention to his last words. ( aside from the hard no on any territory concession )

He's still accusing the Ukrainians of being Nazis I see. Don't think Ukraine and Zelensky will capitulate or be willing to come to an agreement with leaders saying sheet like that.

 

[efil4stnias]

He's still accusing the Ukrainians of being Nazis I see. Don't think Ukraine and Zelensky will capitulate or be willing to come to an agreement with leaders saying sheet like that.

at this point, thats just dog whistles for Russians.

The real issue is what he said at very end. No territorial concessions ( with or without Russians on that land ) because they want the rare earth minerals.

 

[boutte]

Without a US led NATO the world could very well look like what George Orwell describes in 1984. We're already starting to see what the death of a free press and the corresponding weaponizing of all remaining information media will look like.

Let's hope the Europeans finally wake up and realize that this is their last chance to stand up. It's either that or face years and years of war and destruction. Trump IS right about NATO in a sense. But in the long run alienating the E.U. will just hurt our influence in the world. As far as our "soft power" in the rest of the world China will be glad to fill the void. We're already starting to see it in S America.

 

[efil4stnias]

UAF drone operators followed the fiber optic cable thread from Russian operators BACK to origination point.

Here is the result. No more FPV fiber optic drone operators here.

 

[Tapxe]

Without a US led NATO the world could very well look like what George Orwell describes in 1984. We're already starting to see what the death of a free press and the corresponding weaponizing of all remaining information media will look like.

Let's hope the Europeans finally wake up and realize that this is their last chance to stand up. It's either that or face years and years of war and destruction. Trump IS right about NATO in a sense. But in the long run alienating the E.U. will just hurt our influence in the world. As far as our "soft power" in the rest of the world China will be glad to fill the void. We're already starting to see it in S America.

I've been thinking about it. NATO is finally starting to step up. Trumps been beating that drum for a long time.

NATO was not listening then. So if they weren't willing to listen to the 'leader' then what's really lost other than their own sense of comfort which ironically has the impact of getting them onboard with honoring their commitments?

 

[DaveXA]

I've been thinking about it. NATO is finally starting to step up. Trumps been beating that drum for a long time.

NATO was not listening then. So if they weren't willing to listen to the 'leader' then what's really lost other than their own sense of comfort which ironically has the impact of getting them onboard with honoring their commitments?

The problem is now that they're doing it, they've been essentially abandoned by the current administration. If there's one thing you can count on, is you can't count on the administration for anything.

 

[efil4stnias]

I've been thinking about it. NATO is finally starting to step up. Trumps been beating that drum for a long time.

NATO was not listening then. So if they weren't willing to listen to the 'leader' then what's really lost other than their own sense of comfort which ironically has the impact of getting them onboard with honoring their commitments?

what is lost? ( re US on a global stage)

for starters- our word to our allies. Thats where is starts and ends.

The demand for European countries to increase their defense spending was for optics - to align with Trumps "America First" narrative during campaign and first term.

Not a single US President, prior to Trump, has had an issue with America's part in NATO ( financial or otherwise ). Not a single regular American citizen had an issue, prior to Trump.

So what is the end goal of creating this thought that NATO has taken advantage of the US, financially? Have they? We are the worlds largest superpower, and in order to maintain that status, we must project our power ( both hard and soft ) across the globe. That requires alliances, treaties, promises and EXPENDITURES.

And we are looking to upend all that because Lithuania, whose GDP is 1/10 that of New York City, wasnt contributing 5% of GDP to defense but 2%?

THATS the issue? nah- its not. Something else is happening and im not sure what, but its not good.

 

[SoggyBottomBoy]

what is lost? ( re US on a global stage)

for starters- our word to our allies. Thats where is starts and ends.

The demand for European countries to increase their defense spending was for optics - to align with Trumps "America First" narrative during campaign and first term.

Not a single US President, prior to Trump, has had an issue with America's part in NATO ( financial or otherwise ). Not a single regular American citizen had an issue, prior to Trump.

So what is the end goal of creating this thought that NATO has taken advantage of the US, financially? Have they? We are the worlds largest superpower, and in order to maintain that status, we must project our power ( both hard and soft ) across the globe. That requires alliances, treaties, promises and EXPENDITURES.

And we are looking to upend all that because Lithuania, whose GDP is 1/10 that of New York City, wasnt contributing 5% of GDP to defense but 2%?

THATS the issue? nah- its not. Something else is happening and im not sure what, but its not good.

Thing is, we've always allocated a certain amount to the defense budget to keep up our status as a world power. The budget always gets approved because that's what it takes to be a top dog. We're going to do it regardless (maybe not in our current situation) no matter what. Even if our allies aren't meeting a quota. It took this war for them to really step up and they have. This war shows that the NATO plan works in spite of the narrative being framed differently.

 

[Saintman2884]

at this point, thats just dog whistles for Russians.

The real issue is what he said at very end. No territorial concessions ( with or without Russians on that land ) because they want the rare earth minerals.

If the Russians keep losing so many men, munitions, resources on a daily/monthly basis and their economy continues to deteriorate in the absence of a negotiated settlement or "peace agreement" even if these discussions last for months, I'm not entirely sure Putin and his cronies can continually keep playing hardball and making outrageous, unrealistic demands as preconditions for a peace EU, NATO, hell, even "bro-friend" Trump knows they won't honor 4-5 years from now.

I know Russia has a very high "pain threshold" but the grim, vicious and extreme consequences they've felt due to this invasion and the cumulative effect of those sanctions are making them very uncomfortable, if this war continues and keeps going at its current trajectory for another 5-6 months, that discomfort will turn into very sharp, persistent pain, and some aspects of Russian society, culture and economy are already acutely feeling it. Putin and his Kremlin oligarchs can't keep pushing and prolonging this conflict for another 2-3 years and in most realistic scenarios, this war has very much been a Pyhrric one for Russia. They haven't lost this amount of soldiers, resources and their overall economy severely damaged to this effect since German Barbarossa invasion during WWII.