Ukraine (29 Viewers)

Thing is, we've always allocated a certain amount to the defense budget to keep up our status as a world power. The budget always gets approved because that's what it takes to be a top dog. We're going to do it regardless (maybe not in our current situation) no matter what. Even if our allies aren't meeting a quota. It took this war for them to really step up and they have. This war shows that the NATO plan works in spite of the narrative being framed differently.
One major reason why historically throughout most of NATO's existence, the U.S. took on a major preponderance of the military payments, debts and leading role was because our post-WWII economy, then and now, was the world's sophisticated, technological advanced, and strongest in the world and most European nations' economies, militaries and overall influence was drastically weakened after WWII. After WWII, U.K. was essentially broke, a good portion of its internal, domestic infrastructure, overall economy was damaged, outdated and couldn't afford to maintain its control over it's far-flung colonial empire in Indian subcontinent, Palestine/Isreal, Cyprus, South Africa, Rhodesia, Kenya within 25-30 years following WWII, all of those former colonies were gone, some only after a very violent protracted struggle (Cyprus, Kenya, Malayan Emergency), U.K.'s economy was still so perilous and weak following WWII that it wasn't until late 50's that war-time rationing, and National Service were abolished. France, immediately post-WWII was in an even worst state economically and they too, gradually lost all of their colonial empire in Africa, and Asia, the one that really stung them the hardest and in some ways, still affects their national consciousness was Algerian civil war and how De Gaulle's decision to.grant independence in 1962 lead to a nearly-successful Algiers Putsch, right-wing French army officers revolting against his decision, tried to assassinate de Gaulle and tried to overthrow him internally in a right-wing coup. The Algerian affair probably remains the biggest internal threat to security and safety of French Fifth Republic and likely France's worst internal, dangerous security threat post-WWII. Some French, particularly on the far-right, have never truly gotten over the lose of Algeria.

Belgium, Holland, France, U.K. and even Franco's Spain were so preoccupied with rebuilding and re-innovating their economies and internal problems that they couldn't afford nor did they have the ability to match our financial and military committment to funding and arming NATO as a counterweight to prevent future Soviet aggression, expansion into eastern and central Europe, establishing pro-Soviet communist "Warsaw-Bloc" dictatorships and setting up friendly "client-states" in newly-independent countries in Africa, South and Southeast Asia, Caribbean and South America (Cuba, Nicaragua). India in its first 40-45 years of existence was a Soviet-leaning sovereign country under Nehru and Indira Gandhi. Indira Gandhi even abolished Congress, civil rights and jailed opposition politicians, journalists during India's "Emergency Period" for 20 months from 1975-77. One of the world's largest countries as well as democracies was essentially a dictatorship for almost two years.
 
If the Russians keep losing so many men, munitions, resources on a daily/monthly basis and their economy continues to deteriorate in the absence of a negotiated settlement or "peace agreement" even if these discussions last for months, I'm not entirely sure Putin and his cronies can continually keep playing hardball and making outrageous, unrealistic demands as preconditions for a peace EU, NATO, hell, even "bro-friend" Trump knows they won't honor 4-5 years from now.

I know Russia has a very high "pain threshold" but the grim, vicious and extreme consequences they've felt due to this invasion and the cumulative effect of those sanctions are making them very uncomfortable, if this war continues and keeps going at its current trajectory for another 5-6 months, that discomfort will turn into very sharp, persistent pain, and some aspects of Russian society, culture and economy are already acutely feeling it. Putin and his Kremlin oligarchs can't keep pushing and prolonging this conflict for another 2-3 years and in most realistic scenarios, this war has very much been a Pyhrric one for Russia. They haven't lost this amount of soldiers, resources and their overall economy severely damaged to this effect since German Barbarossa invasion during WWII.
Yeh, they are already starting to sound like the Black Knight from Monty Python. "Tis but a scratch".
 
There could be other guarantees beside NATO membership.

Reality of the situation on the ground is without direct intervention by a major power, Russia is going to continue to gain more and more ground, with or without US support. At a snails pace yes, but my bet would be Ukraine runs out of resources (men, material, etc.) before Russia.

I'm thinking that the other goal of negotiations might be to show that Russia's demans are unreasonable

Which could, ironically pave the way for increased aid or even direct intervention
But Ukraine was already provided guarantees- including not being invaded by Russia and if they were we would aid them explicitly - when they agreed to give up their nukes.

And look where that got them.

The idea that anybody but Ukraine gets to decide when enough is enough is ludicrous. They were freaking invaded and occupied since 2014. They are bleeding the Russians and Russia can't continue this for much longer relatively speaking.

It is weird to me that We the People aren't always on the side of fledgling nations in the face of tyranny.
 
Apparently the Telegraph was able to get copy of the US draft agreement that Zelensky rebuked.

Its worse that what was originally reported

- Oil and Gas were also included
- laws governing the agreement were New York law

so much more here that went unreported.

 
Apparently the Telegraph was able to get copy of the US draft agreement that Zelensky rebuked.

Its worse that what was originally reported

- Oil and Gas were also included
- laws governing the agreement were New York law

so much more here that went unreported.

Terrible, but not really surprising considering who's in the WH.
 
China enters the chat:



Imagine, for a moment, that Zelensky takes a meeting with China in the coming weeks. Specific to inclusion in peace process, rebuilding efforts, peace-keeping....and raw material, oil and agriculture.

That move removes almost all leverage US has and Trump would be in a very very bad position. Get mad, lose ANY ability to secure any sort of raw material/fossil fuel deals moving forward. Have to deal with Ukraine/EU/China- fhe former two you just totally pissed off, the latter that has been looking to leapfrog you for decades without confrontation.
But make a deal- but the deal now is all on Ukrainian terms. We have agreement in principle with China. We wont make that deal if you sign ours.

Now what?

LOL Trump et al view Europe as financial pariahs, and here comes China with flattery. Trump gets played yet again.
 
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China enters the chat:



Imagine, for a moment, that Zelensky takes a meeting with China in the coming weeks. Specific to inclusion in peace process, rebuilding efforts, peace-keeping....and raw material, oil and agriculture.

That move removes almost all leverage US has and Trump would be in a very very bad position. Get mad, lose ANY ability to secure any sort of raw material/fossil fuel deals moving forward. Have to deal with Ukraine/EU/China- fhe former two you just totally pissed off, the latter that has been looking to leapfrog you for decades without confrontation.
But make a deal- but the deal now is all on Ukrainian terms. We have agreement in principle with China. We wont make that deal if you sign ours.

Now what?

LOL Trump et al view Europe as financial pariahs, and here comes China with flattery. Trump gets played yet again.

It definitely doesn't hurt to have a pocketful of diamonds when working deals. UKR may be at war for their very survival right now, but they have loads of leverage and the biggest carrot on a stick in Europe. Everyone wants what they have. If I was the EU, I would step up my game and start promising all kinds of security, financial, and rebuilding help they can muster. A united EU co-op with UKR as their newest member would put them near the top of the heap worldwide.
 
China enters the chat:



Imagine, for a moment, that Zelensky takes a meeting with China in the coming weeks. Specific to inclusion in peace process, rebuilding efforts, peace-keeping....and raw material, oil and agriculture.

That move removes almost all leverage US has and Trump would be in a very very bad position. Get mad, lose ANY ability to secure any sort of raw material/fossil fuel deals moving forward. Have to deal with Ukraine/EU/China- fhe former two you just totally pissed off, the latter that has been looking to leapfrog you for decades without confrontation.
But make a deal- but the deal now is all on Ukrainian terms. We have agreement in principle with China. We wont make that deal if you sign ours.

Now what?

LOL Trump et al view Europe as financial pariahs, and here comes China with flattery. Trump gets played yet again.

China about to become the #1 super power and we have no one to blame buy ourselves
 
Russia started this war with a handshake agreement for these same minerals with China.



They sat back, watched Russia toss 1,000,000 men into a 3 yr meat grinder, decimating their economy and military capabilities, sanctioned into the abyss with no relief in sight.
Meanwhile the US re elects a guy who has zero situational awareness outside of 3 ft and gifting China the opportunity to shake the stank off and emerge as a real player in this.

They didn't lose a single soldier, tossed some cheap drones and desert cross atvs to Russia (who probably paid too much for the life span of those atvs in combat ) and have to be reeling at how easy this is becoming.
 
They sat back, watched Russia toss 1,000,000 men into a 3 yr meat grinder, decimating their economy and military capabilities, sanctioned into the abyss with no relief in sight.
Meanwhile the US re elects a guy who has zero situational awareness outside of 3 ft and gifting China the opportunity to shake the stank off and emerge as a real player in this.

They didn't lose a single soldier, tossed some cheap drones and desert cross atvs to Russia (who probably paid too much for the life span of those atvs in combat ) and have to be reeling at how easy this is becoming.
I imagine Xi goes to sleep with a smile on his face.
 
And the ignorant masses continue to be misinformed or deliberately ignorant to what's actually happening there. It's quite maddening that we're pissing away what leverage and influence we've had over the last 70 years or so.

As someone famously said, those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. Except in this case it's actually going to be a worse outcome.
 

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