The Electric Vehicle (EV) discussion thread (Merged) (1 Viewer)

[bclemms]

After seeing the EV’s being rolled out at Chiba’s latest car show, we are so far behind we are Cuba. Now China is rolling out the semi solid state batteries with 900v fast charging and battery swap stations. The gap is about to get so big the new 100% protectionist tariffs just announced still wont be enough.

 

[SWJJ]

The EV market share for new vehicle sales in February 2024 was approximately 6.5%, compared to 83.1% for gas-powered vehicles, according to Edmunds sales data. If we look at things from a broader perspective, electric cars account for 1% of all registered vehicles on the road in the U.S., according to Experian Automotive's Market Trends third quarter 2023 report.

What Is the Percentage of Electric Cars in the U.S.? | Edmunds

More than 1 million EVs were sold for the first time last year, but what percentage of all vehicles do they make up on U.S. roads today?

www.edmunds.com

My humble opinion on this is simple... A very large portion of the buying public does not want to buy an EV... And a very large portion of the small portion that does want to to buy one, can't afford them... or they are not practical / cost effective for daily use... and hence are not a realistic option.

I have never seen in my life so many viable profit based companies try to produce and sell the US public something with so little demand for it, at such a premium price, and with little to no infrastructure to support it...

I think there is a market for EV's.... but the market is not your mainstream everyday middle class US driver.... and that's why it will tank until some tech breakthrough makes them cheaper, much faster to charge, and provide practical and plentiful ways to extend range. Until then, they will continue to be a 5 -10% US market novelty.

That's too simplistic of a take and inaccurate.

I know a TON of people who would love to buy an electric vehicle but Charging Station Availability and Price Points have kept them from doing so.


Last year 300,000 Toyota Camrys were sold in the united states, 3000 Lamborghinis were sold here. Saying that a large portion of the public doesn't want to buy a Lambo would be a misrepresentation.

 

[Infoman]

That's too simplistic of a take and inaccurate.

I know a TON of people who would love to buy an electric vehicle but Charging Station Availability and Price Points have kept them from doing so.


Last year 300,000 Toyota Camrys were sold in the united states, 3000 Lamborghinis were sold here. Saying that a large portion of the public doesn't want to buy a Lambo would be a misrepresentation.

I said it was simple... as far as accuracy... blame the math. Anecdotal.... I don't know a single person who wants one.... And I said pricing and charging are keeping the few that do.... out of the market...

And I think that if you asked 100 random people if they wanted a Lambo - or something else - and price point is affordable and identical... not many are choosing Lambo... It also isn't practical for most... LOL

 

[Rickboy]

gonna take awhile to cover the country with charging stations if gubmint is involved

Biden’s $7.5 billion investment in EV charging has only produced 7 stations in two years

$7.5Billion ‘allocated’ does not mean $7.5Billion spent. As the article states, the challenge is that charger manufacturers were not ready to build chargers with the reliability that the legislation requires. I personally don’t want a dime spent on the highly unreliable chargers that Electrify America or EVGO uses. Also, one of the dumber aspects of the bill was that States were given authority on determining who got the money but they weren’t ready or knowledgable in making that determination.

Either way, the money is there it just hasn’t been spent yet.

 

[nolaspe]

After seeing the EV’s being rolled out at Chiba’s latest car show, we are so far behind we are Cuba. Now China is rolling out the semi solid state batteries with 900v fast charging and battery swap stations. The gap is about to get so big the new 100% protectionist tariffs just announced still wont be enough.

 

[bclemms]

I said it was simple... as far as accuracy... blame the math. Anecdotal.... I don't know a single person who wants one.... And I said pricing and charging are keeping the few that do.... out of the market...

And I think that if you asked 100 random people if they wanted a Lambo - or something else - and price point is affordable and identical... not many are choosing Lambo... It also isn't practical for most... LOL

By the same numbers you presented, you must not know 12 people.

Its pretty simple. Next time you go car shopping be sure to ask for a car that is slower, louder, dirtier, dumber and requires more maintenance

The only downside at this stage is infrastructure and those wounds are fully self inflicted. This is true for 90% of Americans.

For the 10% that arent constantly towing or logistics companies, diesel is still king and likely will be for some time. I get that.

 

[livefromDC]

After seeing the EV’s being rolled out at Chiba’s latest car show, we are so far behind we are Cuba. Now China is rolling out the semi solid state batteries with 900v fast charging and battery swap stations. The gap is about to get so big the new 100% protectionist tariffs just announced still wont be enough.

I saw that. As someone that's truly naïve to how tariffs like this benefits the American economy, why exactly is the purpose? It seems it would stifle innovation to not allow competition from all over the world. Is there a good reason or is the answer purely politics?

 

[Yatman]

the e.v. "rollout" was bungled from the onset, should've transitioned from ff to hybrid to full electric

three huge barriers to market:
- entry pricing and future repair cost
- lack of charging infrastructure
- presupposing public demand

nobody tells american consumers what they will or won't buy, and they're not buying e.v.s in droves

toyota (wisely) sat out the early adopter craze; manufacturers that didn't are feeling their error now

 

[efil4stnias]

I saw that. As someone that's truly naïve to how tariffs like this benefits the American economy, why exactly is the purpose? It seems it would stifle innovation to not allow competition from all over the world. Is there a good reason or is the answer purely politics?

they dont. Akin to "trickle down economics" the initial thought is it will keep China out long enough for US company to develop and match.

The issue is economies of scale to produce - side by side, China just wipes us out. period.

 

[Infoman]

I think this line of thinking has surrendered the US auto industry to China in a way that our children will learn about it the same way they learned about the assembly line. What a massive failure we have been.

I think looking at this from a completely idealistic standpoint, and not relying on consumer data, market trends, manufacturing benchmarks, basic infrastructure concerns, and retailer feedback... keeps the EV market at 5 - 10% of the market share... IMO the massive failure was putting the cart before the horse... delivering a product with a good concept, but very little broad based practical application... no plan to capture the market... and nearly no infrastructure to support it.

To me this is like selling the computer before the Internet... It's an expensive novelty until a Bill Gates / Steve Jobs type steps up to make it practical and affordable for everyone.

 

[efil4stnias]

Thats it.

Im starting a new company. Call it AirCnC. ( Air Chill n Charge )

for a measly $20 you can park in any driveway across the nation of folks signed up and charge your vehicle

( batteries and charger not included )

 

[Infoman]

By the same numbers you presented, you must not know 12 people.

Its pretty simple. Next time you go car shopping be sure to ask for a car that is slower, louder, dirtier, dumber and requires more maintenance

The only downside at this stage is infrastructure and those wounds are fully self inflicted. This is true for 90% of Americans.

For the 10% that arent constantly towing or logistics companies, diesel is still king and likely will be for some time. I get that.

Yep - I know a dozen or so people that are lunatics that have no regard for price or practicality...

And for most people the deciding factor for buying a vehicle is not speed, looks, tech, or maintenance schedule.... It's price, monthly note, insurance, price, price, and function / fuel economy... then maybe color or style.

I do well... I still know very few people that are willing to spend upwards of $100k on an EV

I know there are people with deep pockets that can be idealistic when purchasing a vehicle... good for them... they are not the majority of car buyers in the US

 

[superchuck500]

The EV market share for new vehicle sales in February 2024 was approximately 6.5%, compared to 83.1% for gas-powered vehicles, according to Edmunds sales data. If we look at things from a broader perspective, electric cars account for 1% of all registered vehicles on the road in the U.S., according to Experian Automotive's Market Trends third quarter 2023 report.

What Is the Percentage of Electric Cars in the U.S.? | Edmunds

More than 1 million EVs were sold for the first time last year, but what percentage of all vehicles do they make up on U.S. roads today?

www.edmunds.com

My humble opinion on this is simple... A very large portion of the buying public does not want to buy an EV... And a very large portion of the small portion that does want to to buy one, can't afford them... or they are not practical / cost effective for daily use... and hence are not a realistic option.

I have never seen in my life so many viable profit based companies try to produce and sell the US public something with so little demand for it, at such a premium price, and with little to no infrastructure to support it...

I think there is a market for EV's.... but the market is not your mainstream everyday middle class US driver.... and that's why it will tank until some tech breakthrough makes them cheaper, much faster to charge, and provide practical and plentiful ways to extend range. Until then, they will continue to be a 5 -10% US market novelty.

I don't think your take is wrong - it's very substantially correct from its stated perspective.

But there is also more to the story. EV sales are continuing to grow on a trajectory. As long as the sales are significant and growing, the manufacturers are going to want to be in on it - particularly if the product is seen as the coming of a likely future.




Now look at the rest of the world. Nearly 40% of car sales in China are EV and about 25% in Europe. Automakers have markets that they focus on but they all also participate in a global market. It just isn't likely that the long-term growth trend in the US is going to go flat or reverse - though certainly individual quarters or even years may see fluctuations due to various factors.





And as a market, it is still fairly infant. Consider that the first production line gasoline cars were circa 1890 and the first production line EVs was circa 1998, so we're about 1916 for EVs . . . but with a much steeper technology development curve now.

Charging speed and range are almost certainly going to be subject to major innovation in the next five years - and that really will be a substantial improvement. I think the power grid concerns are also there in the macro and will need to improve. And for sure, the cost of entry is still too high, plain and simple.

But think that EV really is a new mode in automotive transportation that appeals more broadly to consumers that you're giving credit to - but the vast, vast majority of US drivers have never even driven an EV, much less owned or had daily access to one. They aren't for everyone to be sure, they don't need to be - but they have substantial appeal to many consumers and as the hurdles are reduced, I think the share will continue to increase.

Trends in electric cars – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA

Global EV Outlook 2024 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

 

[Infoman]

I don't think your take is wrong - it's very substantially correct from its stated perspective.

But there is also more to the story. EV sales are continuing to grow on a trajectory. As long as the sales are significant and growing, the manufacturers are going to want to be in on it - particularly if the product is seen as the coming of a likely future.




Now look at the rest of the world. Nearly 40% of car sales in China are EV and about 25% in Europe. Automakers have markets that they focus on but they all also participate in a global market. It just isn't likely that the long-term growth trend in the US is going to go flat or reverse - though certainly individual quarters or even years may see fluctuations due to various factors.





And as a market, it is still fairly infant. Consider that the first production line gasoline cars were circa 1890 and the first production line EVs was circa 1998, so we're about 1916 for EVs . . . but with a much steeper technology development curve now.

Charging speed and range are almost certainly going to be subject to major innovation in the next five years - and that really will be a substantial improvement. I think the power grid concerns are also there in the macro and will need to improve. And for sure, the cost of entry is still too high, plain and simple.

But think that EV really is a new mode in automotive transportation that appeals more broadly to consumers that you're giving credit to - but the vast, vast majority of US drivers have never even driven an EV, much less owned or had daily access to one. They aren't for everyone to be sure, they don't need to be - but they have substantial appeal to many consumers and as the hurdles are reduced, I think the share will continue to increase.

Trends in electric cars – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA

Global EV Outlook 2024 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

I've seen some of these numbers... I think the EV market hits a hard wall at some point in a sense that - everyone who can afford one, and wants one... will eventually buy one... Then you have the "other half of the US" that doesn't live in a city... They live in the extended suburbs and rural areas... they grew up on mustangs, loud pipes, lifted trucks, hauling loads, dirt roads, ATVs, etc. Most of them won't have access to EV infrastructure any time in the near future... and good luck talking them into giving up the lifted F-250 on 35's for a Nissan Leaf or Rivian. Then you have the vast majority of the major inner city poor, broke college kids, lower-middle class trade and service workers, retired and elderly... They will never be in the market either... they can't even afford a car period... much less an EV.

 

[superchuck500]

I've seen some of these numbers... I think the EV market hits a hard wall at some point in a sense that - everyone who can afford one, and wants one... will eventually buy one... Then you have the "other half of the US" that doesn't live in a city... They live in the extended suburbs and rural areas... they grew up on mustangs, loud pipes, lifted trucks, hauling loads, dirt roads, ATVs, etc. Most of them won't have access to EV infrastructure any time in the near future... and good luck talking them into giving up the lifted F-250 on 35's for a Nissan Leaf or Rivian. Then you have the vast majority of the major inner city poor, broke college kids, lower-middle class trade and service workers, retired and elderly... They will never be in the market either... they can't even afford a car period... much less an EV.

Where are you getting this idea that EV is supposed to appeal to everyone in the United States? I don't understand this response - and you're by no means alone. My cousin, who drives a 1969 GTO, is always sending me these anti-EV memes and it's just weird. He drinks Coors Light, but I don't send him memes sheetting on Coors Light.

And if you're talking about the new car market, why would you need to talk about all of the people that can't actually participate in it - how is that relevant? But if you want to talk about economics of ownership, I think that the long term track of EV is more promising to provide low-cost cars to segments of the population that can't afford gasoline cars because the cost of operation is so much lower. Of course, I'm talking very long term but it's a new technology - there's so much possible.

Certainly we are seeing local fleet operations transitioning to EV purely on the fact that the cost of energy ("fuel"), maintenance costs, and lost time due to maintenance are so much lower that the cross-over point to justify the higher acquisition cost is fairly early in the life-cycle. Those kinds of economics will benefit consumers as well when the charging and range issues are resolved.

But if you can charge at your residence or work site and don't really need long range, the cost of ownership (after purchase) is substantially less - especially if you include time value calculations on not having to go get gas and the reduced time in scheduled maintenance and repair.