The Electric Vehicle (EV) discussion thread (Merged) (7 Viewers)

[Infoman]

Where are you getting this idea that EV is supposed to appeal to everyone in the United States? I don't understand this response - and you're by no means alone. My cousin, who drives a 1969 GTO, is always sending me these anti-EV memes and it's just weird. He drinks Coors Light, but I don't send him memes sheetting on Coors Light.

And if you're talking about the new car market, why would you need to talk about all of the people that can't actually participate in it - how is that relevant? But if you want to talk about economics of ownership, I think that the long term track of EV is more promising to provide low-cost cars to segments of the population that can't afford gasoline cars because the cost of operation is so much lower. Of course, I'm talking very long term but it's a new technology - there's so much possible.

Certainly we are seeing local fleet operations transitioning to EV purely on the fact that the cost of energy ("fuel"), maintenance costs, and lost time due to maintenance are so much lower that the cross-over point to justify the higher acquisition cost is fairly early in the life-cycle. Those kinds of economics will benefit consumers as well when the charging and range issues are resolved.

But if you can charge at your residence or work site and don't really need long range, the cost of ownership (after purchase) is substantially less - especially if you include time value calculations on not having to go get gas and the reduced time in scheduled maintenance and repair.

Didn't say they needed to appeal to everyone... my point was... it doesn't appeal to the vast majority of car buyers for a myriad of reasons today.... and I am pointing out who they are, and why they are not buying.

We can nit pick who they are and are not.... but in broad terms they are who I am identifying... the sales numbers say so... Who can and who will buy is totally relevant when you have car lots that can't sell the things.

https://www.businessinsider.com/auto-dealerships-inventory-electric-vehicles-gas-cars-key-problems-2023-6#:~:text=New car inventory on dealer,343% from a year ago.

It's a 5 - 10% sales market... it will stay that way unless a ton of changes and advances are made in all aspects that we already touched on.

EV markets will consist of upper-middle class/middle class (or better) private owners, large city and close proximity suburbanites within that group, and corporate fleet.... and not much else.

Urban folks, apartment folks, duplex folks, college students, etc etc etc may not have a residence capable of charging and no INFRA nearby... my point is there are only a finite number of people who CAN get an EV... and even more finite that WILL get an EV...

As an engineer... my plan would have been rechargeable gas/electric hybrids only until all the infrastructure issues, range issues, and cost issues were addressed... and most importantly a diverse market was there for full EVs to take hold in it.

 

[NewOrleansFan]

Less than $10,000 EV. We are way behind.

BYD's new EV, starting at less than $10,000, is stoking fear across the industry

Leading EV maker BYD shook the industry after unveiling the new Seagull (Dolphin Mini), with starting prices as low as...

electrek.co

 

[superchuck500]

Didn't say they needed to appeal to everyone... my point was... it doesn't appeal to the vast majority of car buyers for a myriad of reasons today.... and I am pointing out who they are, and why they are not buying.

We can nit pick who they are and are not.... but in broad terms they are who I am identifying... the sales numbers say so... Who can and who will buy is totally relevant when you have car lots that can't sell the things.

https://www.businessinsider.com/auto-dealerships-inventory-electric-vehicles-gas-cars-key-problems-2023-6#:~:text=New car inventory on dealer,343% from a year ago.

It's a 5 - 10% sales market... it will stay that way unless a ton of changes and advances are made in all aspects that we already touched on.

EV markets will consist of upper-middle class/middle class (or better) private owners, large city and close proximity suburbanites within that group, and corporate fleet.... and not much else.

Urban folks, apartment folks, duplex folks, college students, etc etc etc may not have a residence capable of charging and no INFRA nearby... my point is there are only a finite number of people who CAN get an EV... and even more finite that WILL get an EV...

As an engineer... my plan would have been rechargeable gas/electric hybrids only until all the infrastructure issues, range issues, and cost issues were addressed... and most importantly a diverse market was there for full EVs to take hold in it.

You say these things - but they don’t really hold up examination, which suggests that these are feelings more than thoughtful analysis. That’s fine, you’re entitled to have feelings, but the reality is far more nuanced than what appears to be feelings you have about it . . . for whatever reason.

The average price of a new ICE car sold in the United States right now is $47,218. The average price of a new EV sold in the US is $53,758. The top 5 most popular EV cars sold in the US right now have models priced under the average ICE car price, including the popular Tesla Model 3 ($38,990) and the Hyundai Ioniq-5 ($41,650). People are spending big money on new cars, both ICE and EV - new cars are just expensive these days.

Another data point you reference is people whose living arrangements don't allow for home charging. If you look at the numbers, about 2/3 (67%) of Americans live in single-family homes - where adding a home charge-point is not only viable but cost effective. On top of that, it is estimated that about 5% of residential complexes have charging available . . . yes, it's a low number but it is something that is happening and likely to grow in availability. The idea that home charging is not available to most Americans is just plain inaccurate.

What is a far more sensible explanation is that EV is new and adoption is slow. Yes, for large segments of the US population EV is not appealing - for many of them that is due to practical reasons (like they actually do need the range) but for many others it is due to either ignorance or prejudice . . . both of which are real and simply part of how a large market operates. There are human factors at play to be sure.

But to think that the EV share of the US market has been growing steadily - and will simply stop at 5 to 10% because feelings is not persuasive. I think it all continues to grow, perhaps more slowly at times and more rapidly at times - and that growth will include new models, new technology, new developments in range and charging availability. And it will include, necessarily, new buyers.

Report: The Average Price of a New Vehicle

New vehicle prices are slowly falling, which is good news. Here is the average price of a new vehicle right now and how you can save.

clark.com

Electric Car Prices: The Average Electric Car Cost in 2024

How much does an electric car cost in 2024? See average electric car prices, costs & more right now!

www.findmyelectric.com

Topic: Single-family homes in the U.S.

Find the most up-to-date statistics and facts on single family homes in the United States

www.statista.com

 

[superchuck500]

Okay okay, enough about EVs I think we can agree this is cool, yes @Infoman ?

 

[Tapxe]

You say these things - but they don’t really hold up examination, which suggests that these are feelings more than thoughtful analysis. That’s fine, you’re entitled to have feelings, but the reality is far more nuanced than what appears to be feelings you have about it . . . for whatever reason.

The average price of a new ICE car sold in the United States right now is $47,218. The average price of a new EV sold in the US is $53,758. The top 5 most popular EV cars sold in the US right now have models priced under the average ICE car price, including the popular Tesla Model 3 ($38,990) and the Hyundai Ioniq-5 ($41,650). People are spending big money on new cars, both ICE and EV - new cars are just expensive these days.

Another data point you reference is people whose living arrangements don't allow for home charging. If you look at the numbers, about 2/3 (67%) of Americans live in single-family homes - where adding a home charge-point is not only viable but cost effective. On top of that, it is estimated that about 5% of residential complexes have charging available . . . yes, it's a low number but it is something that is happening and likely to grow in availability. The idea that home charging is not available to most Americans is just plain inaccurate.

What is a far more sensible explanation is that EV is new and adoption is slow. Yes, for large segments of the US population EV is not appealing - for many of them that is due to practical reasons (like they actually do need the range) but for many others it is due to either ignorance or prejudice . . . both of which are real and simply part of how a large market operates. There are human factors at play to be sure.

But to think that the EV share of the US market has been growing steadily - and will simply stop at 5 to 10% because feelings is not persuasive. I think it all continues to grow, perhaps more slowly at times and more rapidly at times - and that growth will include new models, new technology, new developments in range and charging availability. And it will include, necessarily, new buyers.

Report: The Average Price of a New Vehicle

New vehicle prices are slowly falling, which is good news. Here is the average price of a new vehicle right now and how you can save.

clark.com

Electric Car Prices: The Average Electric Car Cost in 2024

How much does an electric car cost in 2024? See average electric car prices, costs & more right now!

www.findmyelectric.com

Topic: Single-family homes in the U.S.

Find the most up-to-date statistics and facts on single family homes in the United States

www.statista.com

I think it misses many factors too such as younger generations do not idolize cars like older ones. Something like 25% don't drive and I recall Ford as far back as 2007 admitting they have no idea how to build a car they desire.

I see them as a good target for a fleet of self driving ev Ubers. I think many realize it's cheaper pay for a car service than own a car in urban settings.

I would not be surprised if the ultimate plan is CAAS (car as a service) modeled like the ZIP cars here in downtown BR. It's 35$ a year to sign up and 9$ per hour to use last I checked. Compare that to insurance, registration, maintenance, parking costs etc, and it is quickly a much better deal to use a resource only at point of need.

 

[Infoman]

The average price of a new ICE car sold in the United States right now is $47,218. The average price of a new EV sold in the US is $53,758. The top 5 most popular EV cars sold in the US right now have models priced under the average ICE car price, including the popular Tesla Model 3 ($38,990) and the Hyundai Ioniq-5 ($41,650). People are spending big money on new cars, both ICE and EV - new cars are just expensive these days.

I know this will come as a shock to some posters here that can afford $100k+ vehicles but... When (According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor), the average U.S. annual salary in Q4 of 2023 is $59,384... affording a vehicle that's $40k is out of reach... a price difference of $5k is a deal breaker... when you don't own a house and can't supply a charging station, even a used EV isn't an option... Without charging infra outside most high-population areas... If you don't use the EV for commutes only... How do you make consistent necessary long distance trips without buying a secondary ICE vehicle? Is there an EV that's going to pull my 8k lbs camper, 4wheeler, pontoon boat, and make it through the mud (new or used) that I can get for under $80K? Can I charge it in the woods?

Look lawyer guy (LOL) - I am not trying to be a downer on EVs... I am fine with the concept, and certainly not against the advancement of the EV market... I was one of the first people to go out an buy a hybrid in the early 2000's (for my wife when we lived in the city and had a commute - It made sense and cents)

The fact of the matter is that EVs are no longer new to the market... and they have a miniscule footprint in it because none of the things I am talking about are being meaningfully addressed... It will stay around the levels they are at IMO (or fall due to new buyers going cheaper routes due to insane inflation) unless the industry and officials address consumer needs and concerns.

Even if they do... there will always be a large portion of the US that simply will not want them, and simply can't afford them. A close family member of mine is a GFM of a huge used car dealership on the Gulf Coast - they won't even buy anymore EVs at auction... They can't sell them... They sit on the lot 3X longer than ICE's and they end up giving them away.

Much has to change before EVs work for a the majority of the US.

 

[efil4stnias]

I know this will come as a shock to some posters here that can afford $100k+ vehicles but... When (According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor), the average U.S. annual salary in Q4 of 2023 is $59,384... affording a vehicle that's $40k is out of reach... a price difference of $5k is a deal breaker... when you don't own a house and can't supply a charging station, even a used EV isn't an option... Without charging infra outside most high-population areas... If you don't use the EV for commutes only... How do you make consistent necessary long distance trips without buying a secondary ICE vehicle? Is there an EV that's going to pull my 8k lbs camper, 4wheeler, pontoon boat, and make it through the mud (new or used) that I can get for under $80K?

lol- you just talked about median income in one sentence.

then ended the thought with the EV ability to pull your travel trailer ( $25,000 ), your ATV ( $8000 ) and your pontoon boat ( $50,000 ) and you complain about the price of the vehicle used to pull these items? ( average pricing- could be more depending on year/make/model )

Oh and yes...there is.

Rivians R1T- 11k towing capacity. 2022 goes for about $60k.

 

[Penguin]

Not a full EV, but finally dipped my toe in the pond with a PHEV. Had it for 2 weeks and the gas tank is still 7/8ths full. I like to take weekend road trips. Range and charging infrastructure lead to the conclusion that PHEV was best for me.

 

[Infoman]

lol- you just talked about median income in one sentence.

then ended the thought with the EV ability to pull your travel trailer ( $25,000 ), your ATV ( $8000 ) and your pontoon boat ( $50,000 ) and you complain about the price of the vehicle used to pull these items? ( average pricing- could be more depending on year/make/model )

Oh and yes...there is.

Rivians R1T- 11k towing capacity. 2022 goes for about $60k.

Yes, I wasn't referring to my income... I was referring to the overall context of what the average American makes - and how that relates/correlates to buying power in the EV market... I am not the Average American.

And technically I do own an EV as well... it's an EZGO RTX - I use it everyday in the yard to move stuff and get lawn things done... even take out the trash... and pick wild blackberries.... So I am doing my part sir.

 

[Infoman]

Rivians R1T- 11k towing capacity. 2022 goes for about $60k.

LOL - Can I charge it at my hunting camp on my 5500W gas generator... will it go 400 miles... can it take less than 24 hours to charge on a 110v if I have to leave suddenly... asking for a friend?

 

[superchuck500]

I know this will come as a shock to some posters here that can afford $100k+ vehicles but... When (According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor), the average U.S. annual salary in Q4 of 2023 is $59,384... affording a vehicle that's $40k is out of reach... a price difference of $5k is a deal breaker... when you don't own a house and can't supply a charging station, even a used EV isn't an option... Without charging infra outside most high-population areas... If you don't use the EV for commutes only... How do you make consistent necessary long distance trips without buying a secondary ICE vehicle? Is there an EV that's going to pull my 8k lbs camper, 4wheeler, pontoon boat, and make it through the mud (new or used) that I can get for under $80K?

Look lawyer guy (LOL) - I am not trying to be a downer on EVs... I am fine with the concept, and certainly not against the advancement of the EV market... I was one of the first people to go out an buy a hybrid in the early 2000's.

The fact of the matter is that EVs are no longer new to the market... and they have a miniscule footprint in it because none of the things I am talking about are being meaningfully addressed... It will stay around the levels they are at IMO (or fall due to new buyers going cheaper routes) unless the industry and officials address consumer needs and concerns.

Even if they do... there will always be a large portion of the US that simply will not want them, and simply can't afford them. A close family member of mine is a GFM of a huge used car dealership on the Gulf Coast - they won't even buy anymore EVs at auction... They can't sell them... They sit on the lot 3X longer than ICE's and they end up giving them away.

Much has to change before EVs work for a the majority of the US.

So you're going back to "people can't afford EVs" and "people can't have home chargers" when both of those statements are substantially discredited by the data? And you keep moving the goal post - yesterday you were capping the US EV market at 10%, as a novelty and now you're saying things have to change for it to reach 50%.

Yeah, I agree - I think 50% of the US market is a looooong way away, if ever. And who knows what developments or alternatives happen in the meantime.

I'm well aware that at $40K car is very expensive for most American households but we're not talking about that - we're talking about the new car market and the data don't lie: a $40K car is below the average sales price of a new car in America today. If the average buyer can afford a $47K ICE car, the average buyer can afford a $47K EV if they wanted one - arguing otherwise is nonsensical.

Yes, every buyer has their own individual concerns and interests - I just think that making broad pronunciations about what most of the American public wants is only persuasive if it holds up to analysis. In the end, only time will tell what the market does and yes, for now, there are some genuine limitations that impact EV appeal, we can agree on that.

 

[efil4stnias]

Yes, I wasn't referring to my income... I was referring to the overall context of what the average American makes - and how that relates/correlates to buying power in the EV market... I am not the Average American.

And technically I do own an EV as well... it's an EZGO RTX - I use it everyday in the yard to move stuff and get lawn things done... even take out the trash... and pick wild blackberries.... So I am doing my part sir.

your post was quite confusing.

You started with the median income thing and the correlation to pricing, but then went on some side track about finding an EV under $80k that has the towing capacity to pull what seems to be an inordinate amount of items you dont necessarily need. Its obviously your option, but it seems a bit hypocritical to question the pricing of EVs when you clearly spend that on luxury items.

I just wasnt following where you were going with that reply. Thats all.

 

[efil4stnias]

LOL - Can I charge it at my hunting camp on my 5500W gas generator... will it go 400 miles... can it take less than 24 hours to charge on a 110v if I have to leave suddenly... asking for a friend?

you can on the 5500

but not sure why your friend didnt spent the additional $200 or so and go with a 9000 watt- that way one could actually use the 240 plug to reduce charge time. ( under 24 hrs )

Tell your friend to stop being cheap and get a real generator for his camp.

 

[Infoman]

So you're going back to "people can't afford EVs" and "people can't have home chargers" when both of those statements are substantially discredited by the data? And you keep moving the goal post - yesterday you were capping the US EV market at 10%, as a novelty and now you're saying things have to change for it to reach 50%.

Yeah, I agree - I think 50% of the US market is a looooong way away, if ever. And who knows what developments or alternatives happen in the meantime.

I'm well aware that at $40K car is very expensive for most American households but we're not talking about that - we're talking about the new car market and the data don't lie: a $40K car is below the average sales price of a new car in America today. If the average buyer can afford a $47K ICE car, the average buyer can afford a $47K EV if they wanted one - arguing otherwise is nonsensical.

Yes, every buyer has their own individual concerns and interests - I just think that making broad pronunciations about what most of the American public wants is only persuasive if it holds up to analysis. In the end, only time will tell what the market does and yes, for now, there are some genuine limitations that impact EV appeal, we can agree on that.

Not sure I understand Chuck... I never said "people can't" anything as in an absolute statement.... my contention has always been a large portion of people "with $ constraints can't" - and "many other just won't as a preference".... not that "all people can't"... that's fairly obvious.

And I am not capping anything, I keep saying... as it stands now (today)... 10% is the best you can hope for... and yes, for significant growth a ton of things have to change... also not some outlandish statement or moving of the imaginary goal post.

My point was (that you are missing) is With the average Salary hanging around $60k or less.... that means a huge portion of the US can't afford ANY CAR that costs $40k or better (which is where nearly all new EVs exist on the cost spectrum)... and they typically don't have the capability/private property to install personal charging setups... this is also not some nonsensical statement. As I stated before - if the average American making an average salary decides they must have or even wants an EV... They are looking at a used 8 year old Leaf, Soul, Focus, Golf or Spark... that's about it. And good luck if you live in an apartment or rural area.... need a truck... have more than 3 kids.... needs 4wheel drive...

I mean if we are not going to add context to the discussion... and just throw out raw numbers and apples to hammers comparisons... what's the point?

 

[Mamba]

feels lke this is just going in circles